Share price
| Item | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 680,985 | 713,163 | 750,251 | 785,181 |
| NOPAT | 22,896 | 23,273 | 26,030 | 25,693 |
| Equity | 91,013 | 99,617 | 104,116 | 114,101 |
| Net debt | 51,077 | 56,368 | 64,855 | 67,582 |
Price vs model value
market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1DCF against the market -72.5% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2037 (Market inputs: Terminal growth and RONIC) at the model's WACC: beyond the tolerance, about -72 per cent: the steady state the market prices in is not the forecast's. At the model's WACC of about 9.1 per cent the market's enterprise value (about 1,072 billion dollars at the valuation date) needs residual operating income growing about 8.4 per cent a year for ever after FY2037, where the DCF lets new capital earn its 14.0 per cent RONIC on 3.5 per cent growth; read the other way, it needs a WACC of about 5.3 per cent with the business in its steady state from FY2028. Revenue grew 5.6 per cent a year over FY2022 to FY2026 and ROIC ran 12.0 to 16.1 per cent;
Residual income against the market -72.7% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2037 (Market inputs: Terminal growth and RONIC) at the model's WACC: beyond the tolerance, about -72 per cent, for the DCF's reason: the residual operating income would have to grow about 8.4 per cent a year after FY2037 at the 9.1 per cent WACC (the model takes the long-run nominal GDP growth, 3.5), or the WACC be about 5.3 per cent in a steady state from FY2028; the two methods agree within 1 per cent, so the gap is the market's against both
What if
Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.The model
Open the modelProfit & loss
| USD millions | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & loss | ||||
| Net sales | 674,538 | 706,413 | 742,217 | 776,773 |
| Membership and other income | 6,447 | 6,750 | 8,034 | 8,408 |
| Total revenues | 680,985 | 713,163 | 750,251 | 785,181 |
| Cost of sales | 511,753 | 535,395 | 560,620 | 588,721 |
| Operating, selling, general and administrative expenses | 139,884 | 147,943 | 156,243 | 163,517 |
| Operating income | 29,348 | 29,825 | 33,388 | 32,942 |
| Income before income taxes | 26,309 | 29,469 | 30,444 | 29,949 |
| Net income attributable to Walmart | 19,436 | 21,893 | 22,567 | 22,200 |
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