Companies Walmart Inc.

Walmart Inc.

TickerWMT · NASDAQ
Fiscal yearends January
Updated3 days ago · r1
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Walmart's three statements rebuilt from its annual reports, with each segment's sales as its retail square feet times the sales each square foot carries.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Walmart grows by selling more through a footprint it barely adds to: its U.S. stores held 699 million square feet in FY2026, while their net sales per square foot rose from 559 dollars in FY2022 to 691 dollars. Total revenues reached 713,163 USD millions million dollars in FY2026.
  • The forecast lets each segment's sales per square foot grow at its recent pace to FY2032 and then fade to the economy's long-run growth, taking total revenues to 943,166 USD millions million dollars by FY2032. The core operating margin settles near 4.3% as the tariff refunds go back into price, and the return on invested capital eases from 15.6% in FY2026 to 13.6% as the automation build adds capital.
  • At a WACC of 9.1%, the enterprise DCF gives an equity value of 269,521 USD millions million dollars at the snapshot, against a market capitalisation of 979,928 USD millions million dollars. At that WACC the market prices in residual operating income growing 8.4% a year forever after FY2037.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 64,855 · Equity 104,116 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
USD millions0500,0001,000,000modelRevenue FY2025: 680,985 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 22,896 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 91,013 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: 51,077 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 713,163 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 23,273 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 99,617 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: 56,368 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027: 750,251 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027: 26,030 (USD millions)Equity FY2027: 104,116 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027: 64,855 (USD millions)Revenue FY2028E: 785,181 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 25,693 (USD millions)Equity FY2028E: 114,101 (USD millions)Net debt FY2028E: 67,582 (USD millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue680,985713,163750,251785,181
NOPAT22,89623,27326,03025,693
Equity91,01399,617104,116114,101
Net debt51,07756,36864,85567,582

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD bnat FY2027$162bn$400bn$270bnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base$160bn$398bn$267bnmarket cap $980bn−$500bn0$500bn$1,000bn$1,500bn

DCF against the market -72.5% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2037 (Market inputs: Terminal growth and RONIC) at the model's WACC: beyond the tolerance, about -72 per cent: the steady state the market prices in is not the forecast's. At the model's WACC of about 9.1 per cent the market's enterprise value (about 1,072 billion dollars at the valuation date) needs residual operating income growing about 8.4 per cent a year for ever after FY2037, where the DCF lets new capital earn its 14.0 per cent RONIC on 3.5 per cent growth; read the other way, it needs a WACC of about 5.3 per cent with the business in its steady state from FY2028. Revenue grew 5.6 per cent a year over FY2022 to FY2026 and ROIC ran 12.0 to 16.1 per cent;

Residual income against the market -72.7% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2037 (Market inputs: Terminal growth and RONIC) at the model's WACC: beyond the tolerance, about -72 per cent, for the DCF's reason: the residual operating income would have to grow about 8.4 per cent a year after FY2037 at the 9.1 per cent WACC (the model takes the long-run nominal GDP growth, 3.5), or the WACC be about 5.3 per cent in a steady state from FY2028; the two methods agree within 1 per cent, so the gap is the market's against both

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Operating income · USD millions
Walmart U.S. sales per square foot growthWalmart U.S. sales per square foot growth, FY2028 to FY2032, then fading to 3.5 per cent by FY2037
DownsideBaseUpside
4.0%
Walmart International sales per square foot growthWalmart International sales per square foot growth, FY2028 to FY2032, then fading to 3.5 per cent by FY2037
DownsideBaseUpside
6.0%
Sam's Club U.S. sales per square foot growthSam's Club U.S. sales per square foot growth, FY2028 to FY2032, then fading to 3.5 per cent by FY2037
DownsideBaseUpside
4.0%
Yearly change in the cost of sales ratioYearly change in the cost of sales ratio from FY2028 (a positive step raises costs)
DownsideBaseUpside
0.0%

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2028E · model · USD millions
Net sales776,773
Membership and other income8,408
Total revenues785,181
Cost of sales588,721
Operating, selling, general and administrative expenses163,517
Operating income32,942
Income before income taxes29,949
Net income attributable to Walmart22,200
USD millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Net sales674,538706,413742,217776,773
Membership and other income6,4476,7508,0348,408
Total revenues680,985713,163750,251785,181
Cost of sales511,753535,395560,620588,721
Operating, selling, general and administrative expenses139,884147,943156,243163,517
Operating income29,34829,82533,38832,942
Income before income taxes26,30929,46930,44429,949
Net income attributable to Walmart19,43621,89322,56722,200
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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