Companies Starbucks Corp

Starbucks Corp

TickerSBUX · NASDAQ
Fiscal yearends September
Updated3 days ago · r1
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An integrated model of Starbucks after the China joint venture, built from coffeehouse counts and revenue per coffeehouse in each region.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • After selling 60 per cent of its China business into a joint venture in FY2026, Starbucks is mostly a North American coffeehouse chain with licensed coffeehouses abroad. Revenue of 37,911 USD millions in FY2026 dips to 37,531 USD millions in FY2027 as China's own coffeehouses leave the accounts, then grows with comparable sales and new units to 47,076 USD millions by FY2033.
  • The core operating margin recovers from 11.8% after two restructuring years to 14.3% at the end of the plan, inside the company's target range. Customers fund much of the business through gift-card balances and Nestle's prepaid royalty, so invested capital is only 9,397 USD millions and the return on it is 44.0%.
  • On the model's forecasts the enterprise DCF values the equity at 57,720 USD millions and residual income at 64,662 USD millions at the snapshot, against a market capitalisation of 119,448 USD millions. At the model's WACC the price implies residual operating income growing 6.1% a year after FY2033, where the model lets it grow with the economy.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 18,694 · Equity -7,520 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
USD millions-20,000020,00040,00060,000modelRevenue FY2025: 37,184 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 2,981 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: -8,097 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: 22,898 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 37,911 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 3,369 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: -7,669 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: 18,240 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027: 37,531 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027: 3,849 (USD millions)Equity FY2027: -7,520 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027: 18,694 (USD millions)Revenue FY2028E: 38,523 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 4,137 (USD millions)Equity FY2028E: -7,145 (USD millions)Net debt FY2028E: 18,894 (USD millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue37,18437,91137,53138,523
NOPAT2,9813,3693,8494,137
Equity-8,097-7,669-7,520-7,145
Net debt22,89818,24018,69418,894

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
Enterprise DCFlow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD bnat FY2027$28.2bn$84.0bn$57.7bnResidual incomelow → highpoint = base$44.9bn$89.8bn$64.7bnmarket cap $119bn0$50bn$100bn$150bn

DCF against the market -51.7% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state against the discount rate: Market inputs.Terminal growth and Market inputs.Long-run nominal GDP growth (3.8 per cent) at WACC.WACC (8.51 per cent): about 52 per cent below the market, beyond the tolerance. The assumption that causes it is the steady state against the discount rate: at the model's WACC of 8.51 per cent the market's enterprise value implies residual operating income growing about 6.1 per cent a year forever after FY2033, against the 3.8 per cent long-run nominal growth assumed, or, read as a steady state, a WACC near 6.1 per cent. Closing the gap takes a WACC about 2.4 points lower or residual income growing 2.3 points faster than the economy for ever; revenue grew about 5.5 per cent a year over FY2021 to FY2026 and ROIC ra

Residual income against the market -45.9% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state against the discount rate: Market inputs.Long-run nominal GDP growth (3.8 per cent) at WACC.WACC (8.51 per cent): about 46 per cent below the market, beyond the tolerance, for the same reason as the DCF: the market prices residual operating income growing about 6.1 per cent a year after FY2033 at the model's 8.51 per cent WACC, where the model lets it grow at the 3.8 per cent long-run nominal GDP growth

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Operating income · USD millions
Comparable sales growthComparable sales growth
DownsideBaseUpside
3.0%
Coffeehouse operating expense ratioCoffeehouse operating expense ratio
DownsideBaseUpside
54.3%
Capital expenditure to revenueCapital expenditure to revenue
DownsideBaseUpside
5.0%
RONICReturn on new invested capital
DownsideBaseUpside
20.0%

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2028E · model · USD millions
Total net revenues38,523
Total operating expenses33,371
Income from equity investees424
Gain from sale of assets0.00
Operating income5,576
Net earnings including noncontrolling interests3,934
Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests0.00
Net earnings attributable to Starbucks3,934
USD millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Total net revenues37,18437,91137,53138,523
Total operating expenses34,49634,51432,75833,371
Income from equity investees248295413424
Gain from sale of assets0.000.000.000.00
Operating income2,9373,6915,1865,576
Net earnings including noncontrolling interests1,8572,5263,6573,934
Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests0.30-0.600.000.00
Net earnings attributable to Starbucks1,8562,5273,6573,934
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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