Share price
| Item | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 130,497 | 215,938 | 407,174 | 692,195 |
| NOPAT | 68,013 | 108,873 | 221,004 | 368,929 |
| Equity | 79,327 | 157,293 | 279,507 | 432,571 |
| Net debt | -34,747 | -54,088 | -67,951 | -97,931 |
Price vs model value
market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1DCF to market gap 29.2% (tolerance 15.0%). the discount rate: the market-average required return at beta 1 (Cost of equity, WACC): The DCF is 29.2 per cent above the market, 6,438 against 4,981 billion dollars at the snapshot. The assumption that causes it is the discount rate: the market-average required return at beta 1, a cost of equity of 9.41 per cent and a WACC of 9.49 per cent, where the price is consistent with a higher required return. Read in the steady state from FY2028, the market's enterprise value implies a WACC of 10.0 per cent; NVIDIA's own weekly beta, 1.70 Blume-adjusted, would put the cost of equity at 12.5 per cent, and on the earlier FY2032 horizon, the margin held, a WACC of about 12 per cent met the
Residual income to market gap 44.0% (tolerance 15.0%). the residual-income continuing value: FY2034's residual operating income growing at the long-run nominal GDP growth (RI continuing value, Long-run nominal GDP growth), discounted at the beta-1 WACC: Residual income is 44.0 per cent above the market, 7,172 against 4,981 billion dollars at the snapshot. The assumption that causes it is the continuing value: FY2034's residual operating income, 501 billion dollars, growing at the CBO's 3.7 per cent nominal GDP growth after the horizon and capitalised at the 9.49 per cent WACC, 67 per cent of the operations value. At the model's WACC the market prices in that residual operating income shrinking 0.9 per cent a year instead, so a growth of -0.9 per cent in place of 3.7 closes the gap; revenue rose from 26.9 billion dollars in FY2022 to 215.9 bil
What if
Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.The model
Open the modelProfit & loss
| USD millions | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & loss | ||||
| Revenue | 130,497 | 215,938 | 407,174 | 692,195 |
| Cost of revenue | 32,639 | 62,475 | 107,198 | 190,354 |
| Gross profit | 97,858 | 153,463 | 299,975 | 501,841 |
| Operating expenses | 16,405 | 23,076 | 35,300 | 60,010 |
| Operating income | 81,453 | 130,387 | 264,675 | 441,831 |
| Income before income tax | 84,026 | 141,450 | 289,081 | 443,691 |
| Income tax expense | 11,146 | 21,383 | 48,505 | 74,447 |
| Net income | 72,880 | 120,067 | 240,576 | 369,244 |
No comments yet.