Companies NVIDIA

NVIDIA

TickerNVDA · NASDAQ
Fiscal yearends January
Updated3 days ago · r1
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NVIDIA designs accelerated computing platforms (data-center GPUs, systems and networking) that contract manufacturers build.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • NVIDIA designs the GPUs, systems and networking behind AI data centers and has them built by contract manufacturers, so little capital is tied up in plants. Revenue rose from 26,914 USD millions in FY2022 to 215,938 USD millions in FY2026, and the return on invested capital went from 28.8% in FY2023 to 268.0% in FY2025.
  • The forecast takes the company's outlook of 70.0% revenue growth in FY2028, carried by the five largest hyperscalers' spending and NVIDIA's share of it, with the gross margin at the guided level. Growth then fades to the economy's as the build-out matures, and after FY2032 the gross margin returns to its level before the build-out as custom accelerators and competing GPUs narrow pricing: revenue reaches 1,119,590 USD millions and operating income 629,876 USD millions in FY2034, and ROIC is still 203.7%.
  • Discounted at the market-average required return (beta 1, the same hurdle for every company), the enterprise DCF values the equity at 6,437,917 USD millions and residual operating income at 7,172,172 USD millions at the snapshot, against a market capitalisation of 4,981,229 USD millions. At the model's WACC the price implies a perpetual growth of residual operating income of -0.9% a year after FY2034; NVIDIA's own regression beta, about twice the market's, would put the required return near the level the price implies.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -67,951 · Equity 279,507 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
USD millions-500,0000500,0001,000,000modelRevenue FY2025: 130,497 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 68,013 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 79,327 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: -34,747 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 215,938 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 108,873 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 157,293 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: -54,088 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027: 407,174 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027: 221,004 (USD millions)Equity FY2027: 279,507 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027: -67,951 (USD millions)Revenue FY2028E: 692,195 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 368,929 (USD millions)Equity FY2028E: 432,571 (USD millions)Net debt FY2028E: -97,931 (USD millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue130,497215,938407,174692,195
NOPAT68,013108,873221,004368,929
Equity79,327157,293279,507432,571
Net debt-34,747-54,088-67,951-97,931

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
Enterprise DCFlow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD tnat FY2027$5.62tn$7.10tn$6.44tnResidual operatin…Residual operating incomelow → highpoint = base$6.26tn$7.92tn$7.17tnmarket cap $4.98tn$4tn$6tn$8tn$10tn

DCF to market gap 29.2% (tolerance 15.0%). the discount rate: the market-average required return at beta 1 (Cost of equity, WACC): The DCF is 29.2 per cent above the market, 6,438 against 4,981 billion dollars at the snapshot. The assumption that causes it is the discount rate: the market-average required return at beta 1, a cost of equity of 9.41 per cent and a WACC of 9.49 per cent, where the price is consistent with a higher required return. Read in the steady state from FY2028, the market's enterprise value implies a WACC of 10.0 per cent; NVIDIA's own weekly beta, 1.70 Blume-adjusted, would put the cost of equity at 12.5 per cent, and on the earlier FY2032 horizon, the margin held, a WACC of about 12 per cent met the

Residual income to market gap 44.0% (tolerance 15.0%). the residual-income continuing value: FY2034's residual operating income growing at the long-run nominal GDP growth (RI continuing value, Long-run nominal GDP growth), discounted at the beta-1 WACC: Residual income is 44.0 per cent above the market, 7,172 against 4,981 billion dollars at the snapshot. The assumption that causes it is the continuing value: FY2034's residual operating income, 501 billion dollars, growing at the CBO's 3.7 per cent nominal GDP growth after the horizon and capitalised at the 9.49 per cent WACC, 67 per cent of the operations value. At the model's WACC the market prices in that residual operating income shrinking 0.9 per cent a year instead, so a growth of -0.9 per cent in place of 3.7 closes the gap; revenue rose from 26.9 billion dollars in FY2022 to 215.9 bil

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Operating income · USD millions
Revenue growth in FY2028Revenue growth, FY2028
DownsideBaseUpside
70.0%
Cost of revenue ratio from FY2028Cost of revenue as a share of revenue, FY2028 on
DownsideBaseUpside
27.5%
Receivable days from FY2028Days of revenue in receivables, FY2028 on
DownsideBaseUpside
65.00days

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2028E · model · USD millions
Revenue692,195
Cost of revenue190,354
Gross profit501,841
Operating expenses60,010
Operating income441,831
Income before income tax443,691
Income tax expense74,447
Net income369,244
USD millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenue130,497215,938407,174692,195
Cost of revenue32,63962,475107,198190,354
Gross profit97,858153,463299,975501,841
Operating expenses16,40523,07635,30060,010
Operating income81,453130,387264,675441,831
Income before income tax84,026141,450289,081443,691
Income tax expense11,14621,38348,50574,447
Net income72,880120,067240,576369,244
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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