Companies Nike, Inc.

Nike, Inc.

TickerNKE · NYSE
Fiscal yearends May
Updated3 days ago · r1
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A three-statement model of Nike, Inc.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Nike's revenue peaked at 51,362 USD millions million dollars and fell to 46,398 USD millions as the company reset its lifestyle franchises, rebuilt wholesale and pulled back in Greater China and Converse. The first quarter of FY2027 fell again, and the model's year in progress lands at 42,953 USD millions, the high single-digit decline the company guides to, with Greater China and Converse down by a fifth or more.
  • Core NOPAT fell from 5,579 USD millions to 3,420 USD millions and dips to 2,044 USD millions in the year in progress as clearance discounts, input costs and the Pace programme's costs weigh. The forecast rests on Pace's stated 2.5 billion dollars of savings and a recovering gross margin, taking ROIC on opening invested capital back to 29.6% by FY2032.
  • At a WACC of 9.4% with beta 1, the enterprise DCF values the equity at 59,532 USD millions million dollars at the snapshot against a market capitalisation of 57,085 USD millions; residual operating income gives a close figure. The market prices in residual operating income growing 3.0% a year after FY2037, below the model's long-run growth of 3.8 per cent.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 355 · Equity 15,079 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
USD millions-20,000020,00040,00060,000modelRevenue FY2025: 46,309 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 3,054 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 13,213 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: 1,862 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 46,398 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 3,420 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 14,865 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: 2,006 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027: 42,953 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027: 2,044 (USD millions)Equity FY2027: 15,079 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027: 355 (USD millions)Revenue FY2028E: 42,380 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 2,632 (USD millions)Equity FY2028E: 15,789 (USD millions)Net debt FY2028E: -581 (USD millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue46,30946,39842,95342,380
NOPAT3,0543,4202,0442,632
Equity13,21314,86515,07915,789
Net debt1,8622,006355-581

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD bnat FY2027$53.1bn$66.3bn$59.5bnRI equity valuelow → highpoint = base$53.8bn$68.3bn$60.9bnmarket cap $57.1bn$40bn$50bn$60bn$70bn$80bn

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Core operating profit · USD millions
North America growth factorNorth America revenue growth in FY2028 (factor)
DownsideBaseUpside
100.0%
Greater China growth factorGreater China revenue growth in FY2028 (factor)
DownsideBaseUpside
92.0%
Demand creation ratioDemand creation as a share of revenue from FY2028
DownsideBaseUpside
10.5%
Effective tax rateEffective tax rate from FY2028
DownsideBaseUpside
20.0%

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2028E · model · USD millions
Revenues42,380
Cost of sales24,580
Gross profit17,799
Total selling and administrative expense15,029
Interest expense (income), net-89.86
Other (income) expense, net0.00
Income before income taxes2,861
Income tax expense572
USD millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenues46,30946,39842,95342,380
Cost of sales26,51926,48725,30024,580
Gross profit19,79019,91117,65317,799
Total selling and administrative expense16,08816,11415,47615,029
Interest expense (income), net-107-50.00-38.89-89.86
Other (income) expense, net-76.00-53.00-19.000.00
Income before income taxes3,8853,9002,2352,861
Income tax expense666792507572
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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