Companies Netflix, Inc.

Netflix, Inc.

TickerNFLX · NASDAQ
Fiscal yearends December
Updated3 days ago · r1
LikeOpen

A three-statement model of Netflix built from its regional streaming revenue and its content spending.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Netflix earns its revenue from streaming subscriptions and advertising in four regions. Revenue grew from 29,698 USD millions to 45,183 USD millions, and the core operating margin rose from 17.8% to 29.5%, mainly because content spend fell as a share of revenue while revenue outgrew the slate.
  • The year in progress comes to 51,161 USD millions of revenue: three quarters are printed and the fourth steps up from the third as it did a year earlier. In the forecast each region's growth converges on long-run growth and content spend moves towards a long-run share of revenue, so the core operating margin reaches 35.2% and ROIC 49.9% by the horizon, with most free cash flow going to share repurchases.
  • At the snapshot the enterprise DCF gives an equity value of 299,365 USD millions and residual operating income 317,400 USD millions, against a market capitalisation of 262,208 USD millions. The market's enterprise value implies residual operating income growing 1.9% a year after the horizon, below the long-run nominal GDP growth the residual income continuing value assumes, which accounts for that method's gap to the market.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 6,172 · Equity 28,738 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2027E · model
USD millions020,00040,00060,000modelRevenue FY2024: 39,001 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2024: 8,803 (USD millions)Equity FY2024: 24,744 (USD millions)Net debt FY2024: 5,999 (USD millions)Revenue FY2025: 45,183 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 11,261 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 26,615 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: 5,400 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 51,161 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 13,746 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 28,738 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: 6,172 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027E: 56,242 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027E: 15,517 (USD millions)Equity FY2027E: 32,249 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027E: 5,288 (USD millions)FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Revenue39,00145,18351,16156,242
NOPAT8,80311,26113,74615,517
Equity24,74426,61528,73832,249
Net debt5,9995,4006,1725,288

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
Enterprise DCFlow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD bnat FY2026$260bn$344bn$299bnResidual incomelow → highpoint = base$275bn$365bn$317bnmarket cap $262bn$200bn$250bn$300bn$350bn$400bn

Residual income against the market 21.0% (tolerance 15.0%). the residual income continuing value: residual operating income after 2036 growing at the long-run nominal GDP growth (Market inputs, Long-run nominal GDP growth): Beyond the tolerance, caused by the residual income continuing value: residual operating income after 2036 growing at the 4 per cent long-run nominal GDP growth. That continuing value carries 57 per cent of the residual-income operations value; the market's enterprise value implies residual operating income growing about 1.9 per cent a year after 2036 (Market-implied growth), and at that growth the residual income value meets the market capitalisation. Revenue grew 12.6 per cent a year over 2020-2025 and ROIC ran 19 to 37 per cent in 2021-2025; the DCF, whose steady state lets new capital earn

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Operating income · USD millions
United States and Canada revenue growth factor, 2027US and Canada revenue growth, 2027 (factor)
DownsideBaseUpside
109.0%
Europe, Middle East and Africa revenue growth factor, 2027EMEA revenue growth, 2027 (factor)
DownsideBaseUpside
110.0%
Latin America revenue growth factor, 2027Latin America revenue growth, 2027 (factor)
DownsideBaseUpside
111.0%
Asia-Pacific revenue growth factor, 2027Asia-Pacific revenue growth, 2027 (factor)
DownsideBaseUpside
112.0%
Content spend, share of revenue, 2027Content spend as a share of revenue, 2027
DownsideBaseUpside
38.5%

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2027E · model · USD millions
Revenue56,242
Cost of revenues27,117
Sales and marketing4,152
Technology and development4,473
General and administrative2,137
Operating income18,363
Income before income taxes17,806
Net income15,046
USD millionsFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Profit & loss
Revenue39,00145,18351,16156,242
Cost of revenues21,03823,27525,01427,117
Sales and marketing2,9183,3013,7774,152
Technology and development2,9253,3914,0694,473
General and administrative1,7021,8882,0342,137
Operating income10,41813,32716,26818,363
Income before income taxes9,96612,72318,45017,806
Net income8,71210,98115,33415,046
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2024–FY2026 · Forecast FY2027E · All years

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