Companies Coca-Cola Company

Coca-Cola Company

TickerKO · NYSE
Fiscal yearends December
Updated3 days ago · r1
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A three-statement model of The Coca-Cola Company, a brand owner selling concentrate to its bottlers, with reformulated statements and fixed items.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Coca-Cola mostly sells concentrate and brands to independent bottlers and keeps few plants of its own. Revenue grew from 38,655 USD millions in FY2021 to 47,941 USD millions in FY2025 while its own bottling arm shrank to 5,735 USD millions, and the core operating margin rose to 31.3%.
  • The year in progress is the printed first nine months plus a fourth quarter at their pace, less the African bottler once its sale closes. Without it, revenue dips to 49,318 USD millions in FY2027 while the core operating margin lifts to 33.9%, and ROIC climbs to 44.2% by FY2036 as trademarks and goodwill do not grow with the brands. The company borrows towards the low end of its 2.0 to 2.5 times leverage target on a straight line and returns that cash, with the free cash flow after the dividend, by repurchases, so net debt reaches 61,120 USD millions by FY2036 while cash stays near its year-in-progress level.
  • At a common discount rate, beta 1 and a WACC of 9.0%, the enterprise DCF gives an equity value of 245,489 USD millions against a market capitalisation of 404,732 USD millions, and residual operating income lands within a fraction of a per cent of the DCF. The market's enterprise value implies a steady-state WACC of 6.7%, close to what KO's own low regression beta would give.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 22,945 · Equity 37,198 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2027E · model
USD millions020,00040,00060,000modelRevenue FY2024: 47,061 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2024: 11,366 (USD millions)Equity FY2024: 24,856 (USD millions)Net debt FY2024: 29,561 (USD millions)Revenue FY2025: 47,941 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 12,063 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 32,169 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: 29,391 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 50,537 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 13,107 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 37,198 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: 22,945 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027E: 49,318 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027E: 13,408 (USD millions)Equity FY2027E: 35,561 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027E: 26,175 (USD millions)FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Revenue47,06147,94150,53749,318
NOPAT11,36612,06313,10713,408
Equity24,85632,16937,19835,561
Net debt29,56129,39122,94526,175

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD bnat FY2026$211bn$280bn$245bnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base$211bn$279bn$245bnmarket cap $405bn$100bn$200bn$300bn$400bn$500bn

DCF to market -39.3% (tolerance 15.0%). the discount rate: the common beta of 1 in the cost of equity (Valuation / Cost of equity / Beta), with the steady state's terminal growth of 3.7 per cent: the DCF's equity value over the market capitalisation, less one: about 39 per cent below it. The cause is the discount rate: the market's enterprise value implies a steady-state WACC of about 6.7 per cent, 2.4 points under the model's 9.03 at the common beta of 1; KO's own regression beta of 0.33 would give a cost of equity near 6.4 per cent and close most of the gap. Equivalently the market prices residual operating income growing about 6.6 per cent a year after FY2036 against the model's 3.7, where revenue grew about 7.7 per cent a year over FY2020 to FY2025 (5.5 per cent over FY2021 to FY20

Residual income to market -39.5% (tolerance 15.0%). the discount rate: the common beta of 1 in the cost of equity (Valuation / Cost of equity / Beta), with residual operating income persisting at the long-run nominal growth of 3.7 per cent: the residual-income equity value over the market capitalisation, less one: about 40 per cent below it. Residual income lands 0.2 per cent from the DCF, so the gap has the DCF's cause: the market's steady-state WACC of about 6.7 per cent against the model's 9.03, or residual operating income growing about 6.6 per cent a year after FY2036 against 3.7, where revenue grew about 7.7 per cent a year over FY2020 to FY2025 (5.5 per cent over FY2021 to FY2025, after the 2021 rebound) and ROIC ran 26 to 32 per cent over FY2021 to FY2025.

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Operating income · USD millions
Brand revenue growthBrand revenue growth from FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
5.0%
Cost of goods sold to revenueCost ratio from FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
36.1%
Capital expenditure to revenueCapex ratio from FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
3.5%

The model

Open the model
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Profit & loss
Net operating revenues 49,318;Operating income 16,698.Net operating revenues: 49,31849,318Netoperatin…Cost of goods sold: 17,80417,804Cost ofgoods so…Gross profit: 31,51431,514GrossprofitSelling, general and administrative expenses: 14,81614,816Selling,general …Other operating charges: 0.000.00Otheroperatin…Operating income: 16,69816,698Operatingincome
USD millionsFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Profit & loss
Net operating revenues47,06147,94150,53749,318
Cost of goods sold18,32418,39719,03117,804
Gross profit28,73729,54431,50531,514
Selling, general and administrative expenses14,58214,52115,18214,816
Other operating charges4,1631,26172.000.00
Operating income9,99213,76216,25116,698
Income before income taxes13,08615,99818,10618,611
Net income attributable to shareowners10,63113,10714,85314,772
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2024–FY2026 · Forecast FY2027E · All years

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