Share price
| Item | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 47,061 | 47,941 | 50,537 | 49,318 |
| NOPAT | 11,366 | 12,063 | 13,107 | 13,408 |
| Equity | 24,856 | 32,169 | 37,198 | 35,561 |
| Net debt | 29,561 | 29,391 | 22,945 | 26,175 |
Price vs model value
market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1DCF to market -39.3% (tolerance 15.0%). the discount rate: the common beta of 1 in the cost of equity (Valuation / Cost of equity / Beta), with the steady state's terminal growth of 3.7 per cent: the DCF's equity value over the market capitalisation, less one: about 39 per cent below it. The cause is the discount rate: the market's enterprise value implies a steady-state WACC of about 6.7 per cent, 2.4 points under the model's 9.03 at the common beta of 1; KO's own regression beta of 0.33 would give a cost of equity near 6.4 per cent and close most of the gap. Equivalently the market prices residual operating income growing about 6.6 per cent a year after FY2036 against the model's 3.7, where revenue grew about 7.7 per cent a year over FY2020 to FY2025 (5.5 per cent over FY2021 to FY20
Residual income to market -39.5% (tolerance 15.0%). the discount rate: the common beta of 1 in the cost of equity (Valuation / Cost of equity / Beta), with residual operating income persisting at the long-run nominal growth of 3.7 per cent: the residual-income equity value over the market capitalisation, less one: about 40 per cent below it. Residual income lands 0.2 per cent from the DCF, so the gap has the DCF's cause: the market's steady-state WACC of about 6.7 per cent against the model's 9.03, or residual operating income growing about 6.6 per cent a year after FY2036 against 3.7, where revenue grew about 7.7 per cent a year over FY2020 to FY2025 (5.5 per cent over FY2021 to FY2025, after the 2021 rebound) and ROIC ran 26 to 32 per cent over FY2021 to FY2025.
What if
Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.The model
Open the modelProfit & loss
| USD millions | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & loss | ||||
| Net operating revenues | 47,061 | 47,941 | 50,537 | 49,318 |
| Cost of goods sold | 18,324 | 18,397 | 19,031 | 17,804 |
| Gross profit | 28,737 | 29,544 | 31,505 | 31,514 |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 14,582 | 14,521 | 15,182 | 14,816 |
| Other operating charges | 4,163 | 1,261 | 72.00 | 0.00 |
| Operating income | 9,992 | 13,762 | 16,251 | 16,698 |
| Income before income taxes | 13,086 | 15,998 | 18,106 | 18,611 |
| Net income attributable to shareowners | 10,631 | 13,107 | 14,853 | 14,772 |
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