Companies Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson

TickerJNJ · NYSE
Fiscal yearends December
Updated3 days ago · r1
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Johnson & Johnson, the medicines and medical-devices group, modelled from its annual and quarterly filings: three linked statements, the operating and financial reformulation.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Johnson & Johnson earns from two businesses since the Kenvue separation: its Innovative Medicine and its MedTech devices. Sales reach 100,766 USD millions in the year in progress, up 7.0%, with the medicines past most of Stelara's loss of exclusivity. The model takes the medicines towards the company's 2030 oncology outlook, then fades both segments to long-run nominal growth: by the horizon sales reach 171,674 USD millions, growing 3.5%.
  • Core NOPAT rises from 24,886 USD millions to 38,499 USD millions, while the return on invested capital eases from 25.3% to 16.9%. The forecast keeps JNJ spending a large share of its operating cash flow on acquisitions, as it did over 2021 to 2025, and capital bought at market prices earns close to its cost; the talc settlement reserve weighs on 2026 profit and is paid out in 2027 and 2028.
  • At the common required return, beta 1 for every company, the WACC is 9.2%. The enterprise DCF puts the equity at 311,325 USD millions at the snapshot, with residual operating income close to it on the same forecast, against a market capitalisation of 657,677 USD millions. The market's enterprise value implies a steady-state WACC of 6.3% at the model's terminal growth, so the gap to the market sits in the discount rate, not in the choice of method.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 15,776 · Equity 84,155 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2027E · model
USD millions050,000100,000150,000modelRevenue FY2024: 88,821 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2024: 17,530 (USD millions)Equity FY2024: 71,490 (USD millions)Net debt FY2024: 12,112 (USD millions)Revenue FY2025: 94,193 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 21,117 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 81,544 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: 27,831 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 100,766 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 22,438 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 84,155 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: 15,776 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027E: 107,115 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027E: 24,886 (USD millions)Equity FY2027E: 94,106 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027E: 19,349 (USD millions)FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Revenue88,82194,193100,766107,115
NOPAT17,53021,11722,43824,886
Equity71,49081,54484,15594,106
Net debt12,11227,83115,77619,349

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD bnat FY2026$235bn$373bn$311bnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base$229bn$399bn$322bnmarket cap $658bn0$200bn$400bn$600bn$800bn

DCF against market -52.7% (tolerance 15.0%). the discount rate: Valuation / WACC / WACC, 9.22 per cent from the common yardstick (beta 1, cost of equity 9.40 per cent): the DCF's equity value over the market capitalisation, less one: 53 per cent below, beyond the tolerance. The assumption that causes it is the discount rate, the WACC of 9.22 per cent from the common yardstick (beta 1, cost of equity 9.40 per cent): the market's enterprise value implies a steady-state WACC of about 6.3 per cent at the model's 3.5 per cent growth, at which the gap closes; JNJ's own regressions read a beta of 0.19 to 0.21 (R2 0.03). Beside the record, the price implies residual operating income growing about 7.6 per cent a year forever after FY2036, where sales grew 4.6 per cent

Residual income against market -51.0% (tolerance 15.0%). the discount rate: Valuation / WACC / WACC, 9.22 per cent from the common yardstick (beta 1, cost of equity 9.40 per cent): the residual-income equity value over the market capitalisation, less one: 51 per cent below, for the same cause as the DCF's gap, the 9.22 per cent WACC against the market-implied 6.3 per cent; residual income sits 3.5 per cent above the DCF on the same forecast, so the forecast and the rate, not the method, carry the gap, and its residual operating income would have to grow about 7.6 per cent a year forever after FY2036 to reach the price

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Operating income · USD millions
Innovative Medicine growth in 2027Medicines sales growth factor, 2027
DownsideBaseUpside
107.0%
MedTech growth in 2027Devices sales growth factor, 2027
DownsideBaseUpside
105.0%
Research and development share of salesR&D as a share of sales
DownsideBaseUpside
15.0%
Acquisitions share of operating cash flowDeals as a share of operating cash flow
DownsideBaseUpside
43.0%

The model

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Profit & loss
Sales to customers 107,115;Gross profit 73,095.Sales to customers: 107,115107,115Sales to customersCost of products sold: 34,02034,020Cost of products soldGross profit: 73,09573,095Gross profit
USD millionsFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Profit & loss
Sales to customers88,82194,193100,766107,115
Cost of products sold27,47130,25632,68634,020
Gross profit61,35063,93768,08073,095
Selling, marketing and administrative expenses22,86923,67625,27026,862
Research and development expense17,23214,66515,61216,067
In-process research and development impairments21181.003750.00
Other (income) expense, net4,694-7,2096,736450
Restructuring234228428268
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2024–FY2026 · Forecast FY2027E · All years

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