Companies The Walt Disney Company

The Walt Disney Company

TickerDIS · NYSE
Fiscal yearends September
Updated3 days ago · r1
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An integrated income statement, balance sheet and cash flow model of The Walt Disney Company built from its annual and quarterly filings, with its segments.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Disney earns from three businesses: Entertainment (streaming, television networks and studios), Sports (ESPN) and Experiences (parks, resorts, cruises and products). Revenue rose from 67,418 USD millions in FY2021 to 94,425 USD millions in FY2025, and the core operating margin from 5.4% to 14.6% as streaming moved from losses to profit and the parks recovered.
  • The forecast takes the year in progress from the nine-month 10-Q and then lets the announced cost reductions and the streaming margins the company expects lift the core operating margin to 17.2%, held after that. Core NOPAT reaches 16,517 USD millions and the return on invested capital climbs from 7.5% to 10.3%, held down by the goodwill of the Fox acquisition. Buybacks return each year's free cash flow after dividends, so cash stays flat and gross debt is refinanced.
  • The enterprise DCF puts Disney's equity at 165,423 USD millions at the 3 November 2026 snapshot and residual operating income at 165,819 USD millions, against a market capitalisation of 197,153 USD millions. At the model's cost of capital the market price implies residual operating income growing 5.5% a year after FY2031, against the long-run nominal GDP growth the model applies; the gap rests on the margin the forecast reaches at the horizon.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 41,418 · Equity 107,934 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2027E · model
USD millions050,000100,000150,000modelRevenue FY2024: 91,361 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2024: 9,090 (USD millions)Equity FY2024: 100,696 (USD millions)Net debt FY2024: 39,813 (USD millions)Revenue FY2025: 94,425 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 10,554 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 109,869 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: 36,331 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 100,251 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 11,740 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 107,934 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: 41,418 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027E: 105,632 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027E: 13,503 (USD millions)Equity FY2027E: 111,939 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027E: 41,418 (USD millions)FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Revenue91,36194,425100,251105,632
NOPAT9,09010,55411,74013,503
Equity100,696109,869107,934111,939
Net debt39,81336,33141,41841,418

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
Enterprise DCFlow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD bnat FY2026$137bn$179bn$165bnResidual operatin…Residual operating incomelow → highpoint = base$148bn$181bn$166bnmarket cap $197bn$100bn$150bn$200bn$250bn

DCF against the market -16.1% (tolerance 15.0%). the core operating margin at the horizon (Analysis / Core operating profit / Core operating margin, driven by the cost of services and selling and administrative ratios): About 16 per cent below the market: the model takes the core operating margin from 15.3 per cent in FY2026 to about 17.3 per cent by FY2028 on the announced cost reductions and streaming margins, and holds it there. A core margin near 20 per cent at the horizon, about 15 per cent higher, lifting NOPAT and the continuing value in proportion, or a WACC near 7.4 per cent (the market-implied WACC) against the model's 8.33, closes the gap. The market prices in residual operating income growing about 5.5 per cent a year after FY2031, against the model's 3.8; revenue grew 2.8 to 7.5 per cent a year i

Residual income against the market -15.9% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2031: the horizon's residual operating income growing at the 3.8 per cent long-run nominal GDP growth (Valuation / Market inputs / Long-run nominal GDP growth), on the horizon: About 16 per cent below the market: the continuing value lets the horizon's residual operating income (about 3.1 billion in FY2031) grow at the 3.8 per cent GDP rate, where the market's enterprise value implies about 5.5 per cent. A core margin near 20 per cent at the horizon, which roughly doubles the residual operating income, or a WACC near 7.4 per cent closes the gap; revenue grew 2.8 to 7.5 per cent a year in FY2023 to FY2026 and ROIC ran 4.3 to 7.5 per cent in FY2022 to FY2025.

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Core operating profit · USD millions
Entertainment revenue growth factor, FY2027Entertainment growth, FY2027 (1 + growth)
DownsideBaseUpside
105.0%
Experiences revenue growth factor, FY2027Experiences growth, FY2027 (1 + growth)
DownsideBaseUpside
107.0%
Cost of services to revenue, FY2027Cost of services, share of revenue, FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
55.5%
Selling, general and administrative costs to revenue, FY2027Selling, general and administrative costs, share of revenue, FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
16.0%
Return on new invested capital after FY2031Return on new capital after the horizon
DownsideBaseUpside
10.0%

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2027E · model · USD millions
Revenue105,632
Costs and expenses87,935
Other items before income taxes-806
Income before income taxes16,891
Income taxes4,003
Loss from discontinued operations0.00
Net income12,888
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests798
USD millionsFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Profit & loss
Revenue91,36194,425100,251105,632
Costs and expenses79,44780,59384,86487,935
Other items before income taxes-4,345-1,829-2,206-806
Income before income taxes7,56912,00313,18116,891
Income taxes1,796-1,4283,5864,003
Loss from discontinued operations0.000.000.000.00
Net income5,77313,4319,59612,888
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests8011,027623798
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2024–FY2026 · Forecast FY2027E · All years

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