Companies Costco

Costco

TickerCOST · NASDAQ
Fiscal yearends August
Updated3 days ago · r2
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A three-statement model of Costco Wholesale, built from its warehouses, sales per warehouse and paid memberships.

Summary by Your Analyst · r2

  • Costco sells a limited range of goods at a small markup over cost and earns most of its profit from membership fees. Total revenue reached 303,154 USD millions in FY2026 from 939 warehouses, of which 5,907 USD millions were membership fees, and the forecast reaches 459,521 USD millions by FY2032 as openings continue at the plan's pace.
  • The suppliers' credit funds the inventory and the members pay their fees up front, so the business runs on little capital: invested capital was 23,078 USD millions at the end of FY2026, and ROIC was 39.8%. ROIC eases to 35.3% by FY2032 because Costco owns the warehouses it keeps building, and the balance sheet holds a net cash of -16,554 USD millions, shown as negative net debt.
  • On the model's cost of capital of 9.6%, the enterprise DCF gives an equity value of 171,557 USD millions at the snapshot against a market capitalisation of 451,664 USD millions. At that WACC the market's value needs residual operating income to grow about 8.2% a year for ever after the horizon.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -16,554 · Equity 42,903 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
USD millions-100,0000100,000200,000300,000400,000modelRevenue FY2025: 275,235 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 7,831 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 29,164 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: -7,036 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 303,154 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 8,811 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 35,803 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: -12,725 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027: 327,736 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027: 9,518 (USD millions)Equity FY2027: 42,903 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027: -16,554 (USD millions)Revenue FY2028E: 352,339 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 10,227 (USD millions)Equity FY2028E: 39,892 (USD millions)Net debt FY2028E: -10,073 (USD millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue275,235303,154327,736352,339
NOPAT7,8318,8119,51810,227
Equity29,16435,80342,90339,892
Net debt-7,036-12,725-16,554-10,073

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r2
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD bnat FY2027$159bn$184bn$172bnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base$162bn$191bn$176bnmarket cap $452bn0$200bn$400bn$600bn

DCF against the market -62.0% (tolerance 15.0%). the cost of capital (WACC 9.63 per cent, beta 1) against the steady state the market prices in: Beyond the tolerance, about 62 per cent below, caused by the cost of capital against the steady state the market prices in: the DCF's equity value at the snapshot is 171.6 billion against a market capitalisation of 451.7 billion. In the steady-state reading the market's enterprise value at the valuation date, 467.9 billion, implies a WACC of about 5.6 per cent at the model's 3.7 per cent growth and 25 per cent RONIC (the market-implied WACC), against the model's 9.63 per cent: a WACC near 5.6 per cent closes the gap. At the model's WACC the market prices in residual operating income growing ab

Residual income against the market -61.0% (tolerance 15.0%). the same cost of capital (WACC 9.63 per cent) and the growth of residual operating income after the fade's end, FY2037: Beyond the tolerance, about 61 per cent below, caused by the same cost of capital and steady state as the DCF's: residual income's equity value at the snapshot is 176.3 billion against 451.7 billion. At the model's 9.63 per cent WACC the market's value needs FY2037's residual operating income of 12.2 billion to grow about 8.2 per cent a year for ever (the market-implied growth) instead of at the 3.7 per cent GDP growth, a continuing value at the fade's end of 957.2 billion against the model's 213.5 billion; in the steady-state reading, a WACC of about 5.6 per cent (the market-implied WACC) clo

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Operating income · USD millions
U.S. net new warehousesU.S. net new warehouses a year
DownsideBaseUpside
19.00count
U.S. revenue per warehouse growthU.S. revenue per warehouse growth
DownsideBaseUpside
5.0%
Other International revenue per warehouse growthOther International revenue per warehouse growth
DownsideBaseUpside
5.5%
Capital expenditure FY2027Capital expenditure in FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
7,500USD millions

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2028E · model · USD millions
Total revenue352,339
Merchandise costs307,164
Selling, general and administrative expenses31,598
Operating income13,577
Income before income taxes14,523
Net income including noncontrolling interests10,877
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests0.00
Net income10,877
USD millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Total revenue275,235303,154327,736352,339
Merchandise costs239,886264,279285,712307,164
Selling, general and administrative expenses24,96627,19029,39331,598
Operating income10,38311,68512,63113,577
Income before income taxes10,81812,25113,47114,523
Net income including noncontrolling interests8,0999,22610,09010,877
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests0.000.000.000.00
Net income8,0999,22610,09010,877
Read-only · Your Analyst · r2Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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