Companies Amazon.com, Inc.

Amazon.com, Inc.

TickerAMZN · NASDAQ
Fiscal yearends December
Updated3 days ago · r1
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A three-statement model of Amazon.com from its 10-Ks and 10-Qs, with the year in progress on its printed quarters, a reformulation into operations, financing and the AI stakes.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Amazon earns from three businesses with very different economics: the North American and International stores, and AWS. Net sales reached 716,924 USD millions in FY2025 and the model's FY2026, three printed quarters and a fourth by FY2025's seasonal step, reaches 822,063 USD millions; AWS, about a fifth of sales, grew to 175,372 USD millions as growth re-accelerated to 39 per cent in the third quarter of 2026.
  • The year in progress is a year of investment on an unprecedented scale: capital expenditure of 234,227 USD millions on the model's fourth quarter, with the company still guiding about 220 billion net, and stakes in Anthropic and OpenAI that lifted the non-operating investments to 298,800 USD millions, funded partly by 115 billion of new notes. AWS's 578 billion of contracted commitments carry the forecast's growth; the build-out's depreciation runs through technology and infrastructure while the mix moves to AWS, so the core operating margin dips from 14.4% and recovers to 15.5%.
  • On that forecast both valuations agree closely: the DCF equity value at the snapshot is 1,947,769 USD millions and residual income lands within about 1 per cent of it, against a market capitalisation of 2,598,938 USD millions. The price implies residual operating income growing about 5.7% a year after FY2031 at the model's WACC, where the forecast's returns on capital reach about 18 per cent; the gap is a steadier, higher-margin steady state than the model's.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 133,505 · Equity 649,410 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2027E · model
USD millions0500,0001,000,000modelRevenue FY2024: 637,959 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2024: 56,929 (USD millions)Equity FY2024: 285,970 (USD millions)Net debt FY2024: 29,698 (USD millions)Revenue FY2025: 716,924 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 69,133 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 411,065 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: 29,958 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 822,063 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 93,615 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 649,410 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: 133,505 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027E: 938,170 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027E: 99,932 (USD millions)Equity FY2027E: 779,090 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027E: 199,396 (USD millions)FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Revenue637,959716,924822,063938,170
NOPAT56,92969,13393,61599,932
Equity285,970411,065649,410779,090
Net debt29,69829,958133,505199,396

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD tnat FY2026$1.79tn$2.09tn$1.95tnRI equity valuelow → highpoint = base$1.80tn$2.10tn$1.96tnmarket cap $2.60tn$1.5tn$2.0tn$2.5tn$3.0tn

DCF to market gap -25.1% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2031: the horizon's core operating margin (Analysis, Core operating margin at FY2031, about 15.5 per cent) at the model's 9.1 per cent WACC and 3.8 per cent growth: The DCF equity value is about 25 per cent below the market capitalisation. The continuing value carries 96 per cent of the enterprise value, so the gap is the steady state: the market's enterprise value needs FY2031's NOPAT about 1.4 times the model's, a core operating margin near 21 per cent rather than 15.5 (FY2026: 14.4), or a WACC near 7.0 per cent (the market-implied WACC) instead of 9.1. The market prices in residual operating income growing 5.7 per cent a year forever; net sales grew 11.1 per cent a year over FY2021 to FY2025 and ROIC ran 8.9 to 23.6 per cent over FY2022 to FY2025. The

RI to market gap -24.5% (tolerance 15.0%). the same horizon margin, and residual operating income held to GDP growth after FY2031: Residual income is about 25 per cent below the market capitalisation for the DCF's reason: the market's enterprise value implies the horizon's residual operating income grows 5.7 per cent a year after FY2031 rather than the 3.8 of GDP; a horizon core operating margin near 21 per cent instead of 15.5 closes it.

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Operating income · USD millions
AWS growth in FY2027AWS net sales growth factor, FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
132.0%
North America growth in FY2027North America net sales growth factor, FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
109.0%
Cost of sales ratio from FY2027Cost of sales as a share of net sales, held from FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
47.5%
Capital intensity in FY2027Capital expenditure as a share of net sales, FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
28.5%

The model

Open the model
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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2027E · model · USD millions
Net sales938,170
Total operating expenses816,249
Operating income121,921
Total non-operating income-1,346
Income before income taxes120,575
Provision for income taxes22,909
Equity-method investment activity0.00
Net income97,666
USD millionsFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Profit & loss
Net sales637,959716,924822,063938,170
Total operating expenses569,366636,949707,599816,249
Operating income68,59379,975114,464121,921
Total non-operating income21.0017,33667,667-1,346
Income before income taxes68,61497,311182,131120,575
Provision for income taxes9,26519,08740,11922,909
Equity-method investment activity-101-554-38.000.00
Net income59,24877,670141,97497,666
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2024–FY2026 · Forecast FY2027E · All years

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