Companies Airbnb

Airbnb

TickerABNB · NASDAQ
Fiscal yearends December
Updated3 days ago · r2
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Airbnb, the travel booking platform, modelled from its annual reports and shareholder letters: revenue is nights booked times the nightly rate times the take rate.

Summary by Your Analyst · r2

  • Airbnb earns a fee on the stays and experiences guests book, and guests pay before they travel, so the customer funds and prepaid fees it holds exceed its operating assets: invested capital was -602 USD millions in FY2025 and falls to -4,693 USD millions by FY2031. Revenue grows from 12,241 USD millions to 21,382 USD millions as nights booked and the nightly rate rise, with costs held at the year in progress's shares of revenue.
  • Core NOPAT rises from 2,227 USD millions to 4,014 USD millions. Most of the cash left after employees' award taxes goes to buybacks, as in FY2025, so the diluted share count falls from 623 to 521 while the net cash keeps building.
  • At the market-average cost of equity, the same for every company, the DCF's equity value at the 2 November 2026 snapshot is 62,627 USD millions against a market capitalisation of 100,884 USD millions. Read in reverse at the model's WACC, the price implies residual operating income growing 6.3% a year after FY2031, or, as a steady state from FY2027, a WACC of 6.7%.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -9,219 · Equity 7,749 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2027E · model
USD millions-20,000-10,000010,00020,000modelRevenue FY2024: 11,102 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2024: 2,273 (USD millions)Equity FY2024: 8,412 (USD millions)Net debt FY2024: -8,317 (USD millions)Revenue FY2025: 12,241 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 2,227 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 8,199 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: -8,743 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 14,334 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 2,669 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 7,749 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: -9,219 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027E: 15,946 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027E: 2,981 (USD millions)Equity FY2027E: 7,492 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027E: -9,719 (USD millions)FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Revenue11,10212,24114,33415,946
NOPAT2,2732,2272,6692,981
Equity8,4128,1997,7497,492
Net debt-8,317-8,743-9,219-9,719

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r2
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD bnat FY2026$59.0bn$65.9bn$62.6bnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base$63.1bn$70.6bn$67.1bnmarket cap $101bn$40bn$60bn$80bn$100bn$120bn

DCF against the market -37.9% (tolerance 15.0%). the cost of capital (Valuation, WACC): a WACC of 9.92 per cent, the market-average cost of equity of 9.37 per cent (the 4.91 per cent Treasury yield plus the 4.46 per cent US premium at the common bet: At the snapshot the DCF's 62.6 billion dollars stands 37.9 per cent below the market's 100.9 billion. Read as a steady state from FY2027, the market's enterprise value of 93.1 billion at the valuation date implies a WACC of 6.66 per cent (Market-implied WACC), 3.3 points below the model's 9.92; at the model's WACC it implies residual operating income growing 6.27 per cent a year after FY2031 (Market-implied growth) against the 3.7 per cent GDP benchmark, a continuing value of 129.0 billion against residual income's 73.9 billion. Beside the record: revenue grew 40, 18, 12 and 10 per cent a year

Residual income against the market -33.5% (tolerance 15.0%). the same cost of capital as the DCF's (Valuation, WACC), a WACC of 9.92 per cent, with the horizon's residual operating income growing at the 3.7 per cent long-run nominal GDP growth after FY2031: Residual income's 67.1 billion dollars stands 33.5 per cent below the market's 100.9 billion, for the DCF's reason, the same forecasts at the same WACC. At that WACC the market prices residual operating income growing 6.27 per cent a year after FY2031 (Market-implied growth) against the 3.7 per cent GDP growth the continuing value assumes, a continuing value of 129.0 billion against the model's 73.9 billion; read as a steady state from FY2027, a WACC of 6.66 per cent (Market-implied WACC). Revenue grew 40, 18, 12 and 10 per cent a year from FY2022 to FY2025. Residual operating income growing n

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Income from operations · USD millions
Nights booked growth factorNights booked, growth factor in FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
108.0%
Average daily rate growth factorAverage daily rate, growth factor in FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
103.0%
Effective tax rateEffective tax rate in FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
20.0%

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2027E · model · USD millions
Revenue15,946
Total costs and expenses12,540
Income from operations3,406
Interest income858
Other income (expense), net-118
Income before income taxes4,146
Provision for income taxes829
Net income3,317
USD millionsFY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027E
Profit & loss
Revenue11,10212,24114,33415,946
Total costs and expenses8,5499,69711,27212,540
Income from operations2,5532,5443,0623,406
Interest income818705766858
Other income (expense), net-40.00-112-118-118
Income before income taxes3,3313,1373,7104,146
Provision for income taxes683626668829
Net income2,6482,5113,0423,317
Read-only · Your Analyst · r2Reported FY2024–FY2026 · Forecast FY2027E · All years

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