Companies Apple

Apple

TickerAAPL · NASDAQ
Fiscal yearends September
Updated3 days ago · r2
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Apple's statements from its annual reports, reformulated to separate the operations from the large holdings of cash and marketable securities.

Summary by Your Analyst · r2

  • Apple sold 478,834 USD millions in FY2026, of which services, earned on its own installed base, were 123,301 USD millions. Suppliers fund its working capital, so the operations needed only 55,269 USD millions of invested capital to earn a core NOPAT of 131,192 USD millions; the rest of the balance sheet is cash and marketable securities, which the reformulation keeps apart from the operations.
  • The forecast holds iPhone flat in FY2027 after its upgrade year, lets services slow a point a year and, in a fade to FY2037, brings every category to the economy's long-run growth while capital spending rises until new capital earns the steady state's return. Operating income reaches 208,164 USD millions at the end of the explicit forecast and 253,156 USD millions at the horizon; ROIC is still 202.8% there, and the capital return keeps net debt at -114,738 USD millions, a net cash.
  • At the common yardstick, the market-average required return on the United States' equity risk premium, the enterprise DCF values the equity at 2,457,090 USD millions and residual operating income at 2,543,800 USD millions at the 3 November 2026 snapshot, against a market capitalisation of 4,823,231 USD millions. The two methods agree within the tolerance; the gap to the market sits in the steady state, the market pricing in residual operating income growing 7.3% a year after FY2037.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -59,613 · Equity 116,396 (USD millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
USD millions-200,0000200,000400,000600,000modelRevenue FY2025: 416,161 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2025: 110,432 (USD millions)Equity FY2025: 73,733 (USD millions)Net debt FY2025: -33,763 (USD millions)Revenue FY2026: 478,834 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2026: 131,192 (USD millions)Equity FY2026: 112,093 (USD millions)Net debt FY2026: -56,824 (USD millions)Revenue FY2027: 494,294 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2027: 134,561 (USD millions)Equity FY2027: 116,396 (USD millions)Net debt FY2027: -59,613 (USD millions)Revenue FY2028E: 514,257 (USD millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 142,582 (USD millions)Equity FY2028E: 121,505 (USD millions)Net debt FY2028E: -63,298 (USD millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, USD millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue416,161478,834494,294514,257
NOPAT110,432131,192134,561142,582
Equity73,733112,093116,396121,505
Net debt-33,763-56,824-59,613-63,298

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r2
Enterprise DCF eq…Enterprise DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, USD tnat FY2027$2.34tn$2.59tn$2.46tnResidual operatin…Residual operating income equity valuelow → highpoint = base$2.42tn$2.68tn$2.54tnmarket cap $4.82tn$1tn$2tn$3tn$4tn$5tn$6tn

DCF to market -49.1% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2037 (Market inputs: Terminal growth, 3.8 per cent, the long-run nominal GDP growth) at the common discount rate (WACC 9.48 per cent), not the forecast years: The DCF's equity value at the snapshot, 2.46 trillion dollars, is 49.1 per cent below the 4.82 trillion market capitalisation. At the model's 9.48 per cent WACC the market's enterprise value at the valuation date, 5.04 trillion, needs terminal growth of about 7.5 per cent a year forever after FY2037 at RONIC 50 per cent, against the 3.8 per cent taken; in a steady state from FY2028 it implies a WACC of 6.41 per cent (Market-implied WACC), an equity risk premium near 1.4 per cent over the 4.95 per cent Treasury at beta 1, against the 4.46 per cent set for every US company. The market's enterpri

Residual income to market -47.3% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state of residual operating income after FY2037 (Market inputs: Long-run nominal GDP growth, 3.8 per cent) at the common discount rate (WACC 9.48 per cent): Residual income's equity value at the snapshot, 2.54 trillion dollars, is 47.3 per cent below the 4.82 trillion market capitalisation, for the DCF's cause. At the model's 9.48 per cent WACC the market's enterprise value needs a continuing value at FY2037 of 9.77 trillion against the model's 3.66 trillion: FY2037's residual operating income of 200 billion growing 7.28 per cent a year forever (Market-implied growth), against the 3.8 per cent GDP growth taken. Net sales grew 5.0 per cent a year over FY2022 to FY2026 and ROIC on opening invested capital ran 328 to 5,813 per cent over FY2023 to FY2

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Operating income · USD millions
Services growth, FY2027Services net sales growth factor in FY2027 (1.11 = +11%)
DownsideBaseUpside
111.0%
iPhone growth, FY2027iPhone net sales growth factor in FY2027 (1 = flat)
DownsideBaseUpside
100.0%
Products cost ratioProducts cost of sales over products net sales, FY2027 onward
DownsideBaseUpside
62.0%
Capital expenditure ratioPayments for property, plant and equipment over net sales, FY2027 to FY2032
DownsideBaseUpside
2.6%

The model

Open the model
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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2028E · model · USD millions
Net sales514,257
Cost of sales261,344
Gross margin252,913
Operating expenses81,127
Operating income171,786
Income before provision for income taxes171,786
Provision for income taxes29,195
Net income142,591
USD millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Net sales416,161478,834494,294514,257
Cost of sales220,960245,232254,194261,344
Gross margin195,201233,602240,100252,913
Operating expenses62,15175,53977,97881,127
Operating income133,050158,063162,122171,786
Income before provision for income taxes132,729159,237162,122171,786
Provision for income taxes20,71927,06227,55229,195
Net income112,010132,175134,570142,591
Read-only · Your Analyst · r2Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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