Share price
| Item | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 313,171 | 360,663 | 348,604 | 360,062 |
| NOPAT | 45,359 | 47,831 | 40,140 | 44,129 |
| Equity | 478,389 | 515,367 | 520,396 | 533,313 |
| Net debt | -93,953 | -126,409 | -94,197 | -70,624 |
Price vs model value
market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1DCF against the market -40.2% (tolerance 15.0%). WACC (Valuation, WACC): the common discount rate, beta 1 and the 5.14 per cent equity risk premium over the 2.817 per cent JGB yield: beyond the tolerance, about 40 per cent below the market: the discount rate causes it. The model's WACC is 8.4 per cent (beta 1, cost of equity 7.96 per cent, the net cash at the after-tax risk-free rate) where the market's enterprise value implies about 5.2 per cent in a steady state; at a WACC near 5.3 per cent the DCF reaches the market's enterprise value. At the model's WACC the market prices in residual operating income growing about 6.4 per cent a year after FY2033, against revenue growth of 12.1 per cent a year over FY2022 to FY2026 (from the pandemic's low) and ROIC of 18 to 25 per cen
Residual income against the market -40.0% (tolerance 15.0%). WACC (Valuation, WACC) and the steady state: residual operating income growing at GDP's 1.9 per cent after FY2033: beyond the tolerance, for the same cause as the DCF's: the residual income stands on the same forecasts, WACC and bridge, so it lands within 0.4 per cent of the DCF and about 40 per cent below the market; its continuing value (ReOI growing at GDP's 1.9 per cent) carries 39 per cent of its value against the DCF's 73, and closing the gap would need ReOI to grow about 6.4 per cent a year after FY2033 at the model's WACC
What if
Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.The model
Open the modelProfit & loss
| JPY millions | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & loss | ||||
| Revenue | 313,171 | 360,663 | 348,604 | 360,062 |
| Operating costs | 168,611 | 201,069 | 193,057 | 199,475 |
| Gross profit | 144,559 | 159,593 | 155,547 | 160,588 |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 79,875 | 91,704 | 98,742 | 97,217 |
| Operating income | 64,684 | 67,889 | 56,805 | 63,371 |
| Ordinary income | 64,455 | 70,140 | 61,478 | 66,036 |
| Profit attributable to non-controlling interests | 1,458 | 1,310 | 1,110 | 1,099 |
| Profit attributable to owners of parent | 43,357 | 51,768 | 44,592 | 44,135 |
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