Toho

Ticker9602 · TSE
Fiscal yearends February
Updated3 days ago · r1
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Toho, Japan's leading film studio and cinema operator, after a record year on two hit films: content and cinemas forecast through the plan and a fade to the economy's growth.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Toho earns from films and the characters in them: it produces and distributes Japanese live-action films and anime, licenses their IP, runs the TOHO Cinemas chain, stages theatre and lets property in central Tokyo. FY2026 was a record on two hit films: revenue of 360,663 JPY millions, operating income of 67,889 JPY millions and 49.00 admissions to its cinemas, back to the pre-pandemic level. The operations earned 19.4% on the capital they began the year with.
  • The year in progress, built from its reported first half, lands at 56,805 JPY millions of operating income, below the record and below the company's guidance, its second half repeating last year's season and cost ratios. Film distribution returns from a thin slate to a normal share of the box office, rights and merchandise keep growing with the IP library and slow towards the economy's pace, and admissions settle below the hit years; operating income reaches 63,371 JPY millions at the plan's end, short of its target, and 73,654 JPY millions by the horizon, with ROIC at 15.9%. The plan's acquisitions, a bond for the Imperial Theatre rebuild, a dividend that is never cut and steady buybacks spend the cash the business generates.
  • At a common discount rate (beta of one, a WACC of 8.4% with the net cash at the after-tax risk-free rate), the enterprise DCF gives an equity value of 839,324 JPY millions, and residual operating income on the same statements lands close to it. Both sit well below the market capitalisation of 1,402,625 JPY millions. The gap is the discount rate: at the model's WACC the market prices in residual operating income growing 6.4% a year after the horizon, against revenue growth from the pandemic's low and ROIC above the WACC in every actual year.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -94,197 · Equity 520,396 (JPY millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
JPY millions-200,0000200,000400,000600,000modelRevenue FY2025: 313,171 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2025: 45,359 (JPY millions)Equity FY2025: 478,389 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2025: -93,953 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026: 360,663 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026: 47,831 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026: 515,367 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026: -126,409 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2027: 348,604 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2027: 40,140 (JPY millions)Equity FY2027: 520,396 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2027: -94,197 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2028E: 360,062 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 44,129 (JPY millions)Equity FY2028E: 533,313 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2028E: -70,624 (JPY millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, JPY millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue313,171360,663348,604360,062
NOPAT45,35947,83140,14044,129
Equity478,389515,367520,396533,313
Net debt-93,953-126,409-94,197-70,624

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
Enterprise DCFlow → highpoint = baseEquity value, JPY tnat FY2027¥0.732tn¥0.970tn¥0.839tnResidual operatin…Residual operating incomelow → highpoint = base¥0.734tn¥0.973tn¥0.842tnmarket cap ¥1.40tn¥0.5tn¥1.0tn¥1.5tn¥2.0tn

DCF against the market -40.2% (tolerance 15.0%). WACC (Valuation, WACC): the common discount rate, beta 1 and the 5.14 per cent equity risk premium over the 2.817 per cent JGB yield: beyond the tolerance, about 40 per cent below the market: the discount rate causes it. The model's WACC is 8.4 per cent (beta 1, cost of equity 7.96 per cent, the net cash at the after-tax risk-free rate) where the market's enterprise value implies about 5.2 per cent in a steady state; at a WACC near 5.3 per cent the DCF reaches the market's enterprise value. At the model's WACC the market prices in residual operating income growing about 6.4 per cent a year after FY2033, against revenue growth of 12.1 per cent a year over FY2022 to FY2026 (from the pandemic's low) and ROIC of 18 to 25 per cen

Residual income against the market -40.0% (tolerance 15.0%). WACC (Valuation, WACC) and the steady state: residual operating income growing at GDP's 1.9 per cent after FY2033: beyond the tolerance, for the same cause as the DCF's: the residual income stands on the same forecasts, WACC and bridge, so it lands within 0.4 per cent of the DCF and about 40 per cent below the market; its continuing value (ReOI growing at GDP's 1.9 per cent) carries 39 per cent of its value against the DCF's 73, and closing the gap would need ReOI to grow about 6.4 per cent a year after FY2033 at the model's WACC

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Operating income · JPY millions
IP and other content growth factor FY2028IP and other content growth in FY2028 (1 = flat)
DownsideBaseUpside
107.0%
Distribution to cinema revenue ratio FY2028Film distribution as a share of the cinemas' revenue
DownsideBaseUpside
45.0%
Operating cost ratio FY2028Operating costs as a share of revenue
DownsideBaseUpside
55.4%
Cinema admissions growth factor FY2028Cinema admissions in FY2028 against FY2027 (1 = flat)
DownsideBaseUpside
96.0%
Revenue per admission growthYearly growth of revenue per admission
DownsideBaseUpside
1.5%

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2028E · model · JPY millions
Revenue360,062
Operating costs199,475
Gross profit160,588
Selling, general and administrative expenses97,217
Operating income63,371
Ordinary income66,036
Profit attributable to non-controlling interests1,099
Profit attributable to owners of parent44,135
JPY millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenue313,171360,663348,604360,062
Operating costs168,611201,069193,057199,475
Gross profit144,559159,593155,547160,588
Selling, general and administrative expenses79,87591,70498,74297,217
Operating income64,68467,88956,80563,371
Ordinary income64,45570,14061,47866,036
Profit attributable to non-controlling interests1,4581,3101,1101,099
Profit attributable to owners of parent43,35751,76844,59244,135
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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