Share price
| Item | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,835,525 | 6,071,915 | 6,378,922 | 6,628,700 |
| NOPAT | 728,811 | 728,029 | 786,030 | 816,808 |
| Equity | 5,032,495 | 5,076,738 | 5,221,914 | 5,344,518 |
| Net debt | 3,521,399 | 4,300,941 | 4,420,783 | 4,536,922 |
Price vs model value
market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1DCF to market gap 18.0% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state: Terminal growth 1.9 per cent and WACC 5.85 per cent at beta 1 (Valuation, Market inputs and WACC): Beyond the tolerance, by the steady state (Terminal growth 1.9 per cent; WACC 5.85 per cent at beta 1): the DCF stands 18.0 per cent, about 1.94 trillion yen, above the market capitalisation, and 79 per cent of its enterprise value is the continuing value after FY2034. The market's price corresponds to residual operating income growing about 0.06 per cent a year after FY2034 against the model's 1.9, or to a steady-state WACC of 6.26 per cent against 5.85 (about 0.4 point, a beta near 1.11). Revenue grew about 2.7 per cent a year over FY2022 to FY2026 (5.45 to 6.07 trillion yen) and ROIC ran 9.
Residual income to market gap 18.1% (tolerance 15.0%). the same steady state: Long-run nominal GDP growth 1.9 per cent and WACC 5.85 per cent (Valuation, Market inputs and WACC): Beyond the tolerance, by the same steady state (Long-run nominal GDP growth 1.9 per cent; WACC 5.85 per cent): on the same forecasts the two methods agree within 0.1 per cent, so residual income stands 18.1 per cent above the market as the DCF does; the market's price corresponds to residual operating income growing about 0.06 per cent a year after FY2034 against the economy's 1.9, or to a steady-state WACC of 6.26 per cent against 5.85.
What if
Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.The model
Open the modelProfit & loss
| JPY millions | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & loss | ||||
| Revenue | 5,835,525 | 6,071,915 | 6,378,922 | 6,628,700 |
| Cost of sales | 3,343,655 | 3,481,279 | 3,651,814 | 3,794,808 |
| Gross profit | 2,491,870 | 2,590,636 | 2,727,107 | 2,833,893 |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 1,429,465 | 1,529,370 | 1,581,292 | 1,643,210 |
| Other income | 12,763 | 18,156 | 22,319 | 22,319 |
| Other expenses | 15,202 | 20,188 | 15,115 | 15,115 |
| Share of profit of equity-method investments | 27,501 | 39,890 | 47,721 | 47,721 |
| Operating income | 1,087,468 | 1,099,125 | 1,200,741 | 1,245,607 |
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