KDDI

Ticker9433 · TSE
Fiscal yearends March
Updated3 days ago · r1
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KDDI, a Japanese mobile and fixed-line carrier that also runs a growing bank, card and energy business on its customer base.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • KDDI runs one of Japan's three national mobile networks and, through au Jibun Bank, a bank that has grown on its customer base. Revenue rose from 5,446,708 JPY millions million yen in FY2022 to 6,071,915 JPY millions in FY2026, while total assets went from 11,084,379 JPY millions to 19,063,364 JPY millions, almost all of the rise in the bank's loans and deposits.
  • Revenue is forecast by the segments redrawn in FY2027: the consumer services and the corporate digital services grew two to three times as fast as the telecom core in the first quarter, and the forecast fades every segment towards the economy's growth by FY2034. Operating income reaches 1,200,741 JPY millions million yen in the year in progress and 1,463,249 JPY millions in FY2034; the return on invested capital holds near 9.2%, above the WACC of 5.8%.
  • On these forecasts the DCF gives 3,349 JPY yen a share at the 2 November 2026 close, 18.0% above the market capitalisation, with residual income agreeing; most of the DCF's value lies after FY2034. The market's price corresponds to residual operating income growing 0.1% a year after FY2034, or to a steady-state WACC of 6.3%.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 4,420,783 · Equity 5,221,914 (JPY millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
JPY millions02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,000modelRevenue FY2025: 5,835,525 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2025: 728,811 (JPY millions)Equity FY2025: 5,032,495 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2025: 3,521,399 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026: 6,071,915 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026: 728,029 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026: 5,076,738 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026: 4,300,941 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2027: 6,378,922 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2027: 786,030 (JPY millions)Equity FY2027: 5,221,914 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2027: 4,420,783 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2028E: 6,628,700 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 816,808 (JPY millions)Equity FY2028E: 5,344,518 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2028E: 4,536,922 (JPY millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, JPY millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue5,835,5256,071,9156,378,9226,628,700
NOPAT728,811728,029786,030816,808
Equity5,032,4955,076,7385,221,9145,344,518
Net debt3,521,3994,300,9414,420,7834,536,922

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, JPY tnat FY2027¥12.5tn¥12.9tn¥12.8tnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base¥12.5tn¥12.9tn¥12.8tnmarket cap ¥10.8tn¥10tn¥11tn¥12tn¥13tn¥14tn

DCF to market gap 18.0% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state: Terminal growth 1.9 per cent and WACC 5.85 per cent at beta 1 (Valuation, Market inputs and WACC): Beyond the tolerance, by the steady state (Terminal growth 1.9 per cent; WACC 5.85 per cent at beta 1): the DCF stands 18.0 per cent, about 1.94 trillion yen, above the market capitalisation, and 79 per cent of its enterprise value is the continuing value after FY2034. The market's price corresponds to residual operating income growing about 0.06 per cent a year after FY2034 against the model's 1.9, or to a steady-state WACC of 6.26 per cent against 5.85 (about 0.4 point, a beta near 1.11). Revenue grew about 2.7 per cent a year over FY2022 to FY2026 (5.45 to 6.07 trillion yen) and ROIC ran 9.

Residual income to market gap 18.1% (tolerance 15.0%). the same steady state: Long-run nominal GDP growth 1.9 per cent and WACC 5.85 per cent (Valuation, Market inputs and WACC): Beyond the tolerance, by the same steady state (Long-run nominal GDP growth 1.9 per cent; WACC 5.85 per cent): on the same forecasts the two methods agree within 0.1 per cent, so residual income stands 18.1 per cent above the market as the DCF does; the market's price corresponds to residual operating income growing about 0.06 per cent a year after FY2034 against the economy's 1.9, or to a steady-state WACC of 6.26 per cent against 5.85.

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Operating income · JPY millions
Telecom core growth factorTelecom core revenue growth in FY2028 (1 + rate)
DownsideBaseUpside
102.5%
Personal growth factorPersonal growth revenue growth in FY2028 (1 + rate)
DownsideBaseUpside
107.0%
Business growth factorBusiness growth revenue growth in FY2028 (1 + rate)
DownsideBaseUpside
110.0%

The model

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Profit & loss
P&L, FY2028E · model · JPY millions
Revenue6,628,700
Cost of sales3,794,808
Gross profit2,833,893
Selling, general and administrative expenses1,643,210
Other income22,319
Other expenses15,115
Share of profit of equity-method investments47,721
Operating income1,245,607
JPY millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenue5,835,5256,071,9156,378,9226,628,700
Cost of sales3,343,6553,481,2793,651,8143,794,808
Gross profit2,491,8702,590,6362,727,1072,833,893
Selling, general and administrative expenses1,429,4651,529,3701,581,2921,643,210
Other income12,76318,15622,31922,319
Other expenses15,20220,18815,11515,115
Share of profit of equity-method investments27,50139,89047,72147,721
Operating income1,087,4681,099,1251,200,7411,245,607
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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