Companies Tokyo Electron

Tokyo Electron

Ticker8035 · TSE
Fiscal yearends March
Updated3 days ago · r2
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A three-statement model of Tokyo Electron, the Japanese maker of wafer-processing equipment, built from its filings.

Summary by Your Analyst · r2

  • Tokyo Electron makes the coating, etching, deposition and cleaning tools that chipmakers use, and sells almost all of them outside Japan. Revenue was flat in FY2026 at 2,443,533 JPY millions; the year in progress reaches 3,453,922 JPY millions in the model, its printed first half having risen sharply on spending for AI logic and memory, with operating income of 1,049,722 JPY millions.
  • After a further step in FY2028 with the wafer fab equipment market, the forecast slows towards the market's long-run pace, revenue reaching 4,989,484 JPY millions and operating income 1,516,413 JPY millions. The business needs little capital for its profit: return on invested capital stays near 40.5%, the company carries no borrowings, and it pays half its profit as dividends with buybacks on top.
  • At the 2 November 2026 snapshot, the enterprise DCF values the equity at 14,186,429 JPY millions against a market capitalisation of 22,646,805 JPY millions, and residual income lands close to the DCF. At the model's cost of capital, the market prices in residual operating income growing 4.7% a year after FY2032, against the 1.9% long-run nominal GDP growth the model holds.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -287,018 · Equity 2,264,274 (JPY millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
JPY millions-2,000,00002,000,0004,000,0006,000,000modelRevenue FY2025: 2,431,568 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2025: 483,800 (JPY millions)Equity FY2025: 1,839,928 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2025: -418,365 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026: 2,443,533 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026: 433,581 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026: 2,046,297 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026: -412,266 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2027: 3,453,922 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2027: 728,297 (JPY millions)Equity FY2027: 2,264,274 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2027: -287,018 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2028E: 4,144,706 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 873,957 (JPY millions)Equity FY2028E: 2,601,677 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2028E: -320,600 (JPY millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, JPY millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue2,431,5682,443,5333,453,9224,144,706
NOPAT483,800433,581728,297873,957
Equity1,839,9282,046,2972,264,2742,601,677
Net debt-418,365-412,266-287,018-320,600

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r2
Enterprise DCFlow → highpoint = baseEquity value, JPY tnat FY2027¥10.8tn¥16.6tn¥14.2tnResidual operatin…Residual operating incomelow → highpoint = base¥12.3tn¥15.5tn¥14.4tnmarket cap ¥22.6tn¥5tn¥10tn¥15tn¥20tn¥25tn¥30tn

DCF against the market -37.4% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2032: Market inputs.Terminal growth at 1.9 per cent and Market inputs.RONIC at 30 per cent, after an explicit forecast whose growth slows to 4 per cent by FY2031: Beyond the tolerance, caused by the steady state after FY2032 (terminal growth 1.9 per cent, RONIC 30 per cent), which carries 79 per cent of the enterprise value: the market's enterprise value at the valuation date, 22.9 trillion yen, is 1.62 times the model's 14.2 trillion. At the model's WACC of 8.03 per cent the market prices in residual operating income after FY2032 growing 4.70 per cent a year forever against the 1.9 per cent held; read as a steady state from FY2028, it implies a WACC of 5.48 per cent. A perpetual growth near 4.7 per cent, or a WACC near 5.5 per cent, closes the gap. Bes

Residual income against the market -36.2% (tolerance 15.0%). the growth of residual operating income after FY2032, held at Market inputs.Long-run nominal GDP growth, 1.9 per cent: Beyond the tolerance for the same cause as the DCF's: at the model's WACC of 8.03 per cent the FY2032 residual operating income of 843 billion yen would have to grow 4.70 per cent a year forever, not the 1.9 per cent GDP growth held, for the operations to reach the market's 22.9 trillion yen enterprise value; read as a steady state from FY2028, the market implies a WACC of 5.48 per cent. Beside the record (the Ten-year record block): revenue growth of 13.9 per cent a year from FY2016 to FY2026, -17.1 to +43.2 per cent in single years, and ROIC of 29.8 to 62.0 per cent in every year from FY2017

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Operating income · JPY millions
FY2028 revenue growth factorRevenue in FY2028 against FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
120.0%
Terminal growthGrowth after FY2032
DownsideBaseUpside
1.9%
Return on new invested capitalReturn on new capital after FY2032
DownsideBaseUpside
30.0%

The model

Open the model
✓ All checks pass
Profit & loss
Revenue 4,144,706;Operating income 1,259,667.Revenue: 4,144,7064,144,706RevenueCost of sales: 2,180,7962,180,796Cost ofsalesGross profit: 1,963,9111,963,911Gross profitSelling, general and administrative expenses: 704,244704,244Selling,general and…Operating income: 1,259,6671,259,667Operatingincome
JPY millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenue2,431,5682,443,5333,453,9224,144,706
Cost of sales1,285,2801,335,6521,817,3302,180,796
Gross profit1,146,2871,107,8801,636,5921,963,911
Selling, general and administrative expenses448,967482,944586,870704,244
Operating income697,319624,9361,049,7221,259,667
Ordinary income707,727630,3381,053,8151,259,008
Income before income taxes706,114748,1801,053,8151,259,008
Net income544,133574,454805,204961,989
Read-only · Your Analyst · r2Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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