Companies Nintendo

Nintendo

Ticker7974 · TSE
Fiscal yearends March
Updated3 days ago · r2
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Nintendo makes game consoles and the software played on them, and licenses its characters to films, parks and mobile games.

Summary by Your Analyst · r2

  • Nintendo sells its consoles at about what they cost to make and earns its profit on the software played on them and on its characters, licensed to films, parks and mobile games. In the old Switch's fifth year revenue was 1,695,344 JPY millions at a core operating margin of 35.2%; in its successor's launch year revenue rose to 2,313,051 JPY millions while the margin fell to 16.0%, the dearer hardware adding sales but little profit.
  • The forecast carries the new console through its seventh year with no successor. Software copies follow the growing installed base, but research and development and the other overheads keep growing while revenue per unit holds, so the core operating margin stays near 15.6% and core NOPAT eases to 149,072 JPY millions in the last year, as hardware sales fall. The continuing value therefore capitalises the cycle's average year, 206,010 JPY millions of core NOPAT, rather than the last.
  • At the market-average required return the WACC is 10.0%, the net cash weighing in as a negative debt. The DCF values the equity at 4,771,177 JPY millions against a market capitalisation of 9,394,400 JPY millions, and residual operating income agrees within the tolerance; to reach the market's value, residual operating income would have to grow 8.1% a year forever after the horizon.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -2,206,253 · Equity 3,005,357 (JPY millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
JPY millions-4,000,000-2,000,00002,000,0004,000,000modelRevenue FY2025: 1,164,922 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2025: 201,303 (JPY millions)Equity FY2025: 2,724,327 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2025: -2,035,329 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026: 2,313,051 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026: 257,038 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026: 2,954,024 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026: -2,203,429 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2027: 2,062,949 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2027: 224,312 (JPY millions)Equity FY2027: 3,005,357 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2027: -2,206,253 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2028E: 1,996,281 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 203,986 (JPY millions)Equity FY2028E: 3,107,141 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2028E: -2,293,667 (JPY millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, JPY millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue1,164,9222,313,0512,062,9491,996,281
NOPAT201,303257,038224,312203,986
Equity2,724,3272,954,0243,005,3573,107,141
Net debt-2,035,329-2,203,429-2,206,253-2,293,667

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r2
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, JPY tnat FY2027¥3.97tn¥5.20tn¥4.77tnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base¥3.97tn¥5.24tn¥4.80tnmarket cap ¥9.39tn0¥5tn¥10tn¥15tn

DCF to market gap -49.2% (tolerance 15.0%). the normal year's earnings level: Continuing value.Normal-year core NOPAT, the cycle's average core NOPAT over FY2026 to FY2032: The gap is the level of the normal year's earnings: the continuing value capitalises the model's own cycle average, 206 billion yen of core NOPAT over Switch 2's seven years FY2026 to FY2032. FY2032 itself, the seventh year, earns 149 billion and its revenue falls 3.4 per cent against g of 1.9 per cent, 5.3 points apart, which is why it is not the year capitalised. The market capitalisation of 9.39 trillion yen at 2 November 2026 is an enterprise value of 7.04 trillion yen at the end of FY2027 against the model's 2.27 trillion: at the model's 9.98 per cent WACC that takes a normal-year core NO

Residual income to market gap -48.9% (tolerance 15.0%). the normal year's earnings level: RI continuing value.Normal-year residual operating income, from the cycle's average core NOPAT over FY2026 to FY2032: The same cause as the DCF to market gap, the level of the normal year's earnings: residual income, whose continuing value grows the normal year's residual operating income of 171 billion yen at the 1.9 per cent long-run nominal GDP growth, sits 0.6 per cent above the DCF. Closing the gap at the model's 9.98 per cent WACC takes a normal-year residual operating income of about 776 billion yen, a normal-year core NOPAT of about 810 billion, nearly four times the model's 206 and about twice FY2022's 414 billion, the best actual year; the market prices in that residual income growing 8.1 per cent a

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Operating income · JPY millions
Switch 2 software growth factorSwitch 2 software copies, growth in FY2028 (x)
DownsideBaseUpside
140.0%
Cost ratio to hardware revenueCost of sales to hardware revenue from FY2028
DownsideBaseUpside
94.0%
Research and development growth factorResearch and development, yearly growth from FY2028 (x)
DownsideBaseUpside
105.5%
Other selling and administrative growth factorOther overheads, yearly growth from FY2028 (x)
DownsideBaseUpside
105.0%

The model

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Profit & loss
Revenue 1,996,281;Operating income 287,634.Revenue: 1,996,2811,996,281RevenueCost of sales: 1,136,4431,136,443Cost ofsalesGross profit: 859,838859,838Gross profitSelling, general and administrative expenses: 572,204572,204Selling,general and…Operating income: 287,634287,634Operatingincome
JPY millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenue1,164,9222,313,0512,062,9491,996,281
Cost of sales454,7541,404,0941,192,2261,136,443
Gross profit710,168908,956870,723859,838
Selling, general and administrative expenses427,614548,839553,459572,204
Operating income282,553360,117317,264287,634
Ordinary income372,316542,196419,161389,587
Profit before tax372,331568,194419,161389,587
Profit attributable to owners of the parent278,806424,056305,766285,244
Read-only · Your Analyst · r2Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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