Companies Advantest

Advantest

Ticker6857 · TSE
Fiscal yearends March
Updated3 days ago · r1
LikeOpen

A full statements model of Advantest, the leading maker of semiconductor test systems.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Advantest makes the machines that test chips before they ship: SoC testers for logic and AI processors, memory testers for DRAM and HBM, and the handlers, interfaces and services sold with them. Revenue grew from 416,901 JPY millions in FY2022 to 1,128,610 JPY millions in FY2026 as AI data-centre chips lengthened the test time each wafer needs, and the year to March 2027, its first half printed, reaches 1,810,625 JPY millions at a core operating margin of 53.9%.
  • The forecast slows SoC tester growth each year to FY2032, then fades growth and margins over FY2033 to FY2035 towards the economy's pace and the five actual years' through-cycle cost levels. Operating income peaks at 1,614,801 JPY millions and falls back to 1,092,263 JPY millions as margins return to the cycle's average, while return on invested capital stays at 67.4% because testers need little capital; cash settles at 714,369 JPY millions as shareholder returns rise to most of the profit, an assumption beyond the company's stated floor.
  • At a WACC of 8.0%, the enterprise DCF values the equity at 11,843,063 JPY millions at the 2 November 2026 snapshot, and residual income on the same forecasts lands close to it, against a market capitalisation of 25,824,255 JPY millions. The gap lies in the steady state after FY2035: at the model's WACC the price implies residual operating income growing 6.1% a year forever, where the model lets margins return to the cycle's average and grows the business with the economy.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -267,162 · Equity 1,207,515 (JPY millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
JPY millions-1,000,00001,000,0002,000,0003,000,000modelRevenue FY2025: 779,707 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2025: 173,537 (JPY millions)Equity FY2025: 506,539 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2025: -151,427 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026: 1,128,610 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026: 345,053 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026: 795,726 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026: -299,552 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2027: 1,810,625 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2027: 678,753 (JPY millions)Equity FY2027: 1,207,515 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2027: -267,162 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2028E: 2,147,511 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 804,468 (JPY millions)Equity FY2028E: 1,463,700 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2028E: -426,093 (JPY millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, JPY millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue779,7071,128,6101,810,6252,147,511
NOPAT173,537345,053678,753804,468
Equity506,539795,7261,207,5151,463,700
Net debt-151,427-299,552-267,162-426,093

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, JPY tnat FY2027¥9.57tn¥13.7tn¥11.8tnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base¥9.60tn¥13.7tn¥11.9tnmarket cap ¥25.8tn0¥10tn¥20tn¥30tn

DCF against the market -54.1% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2035: the core operating margin fading to the five actual years' through-cycle level (Through-cycle margins, Fade drivers) and growth at Japan's long-run nominal GDP growth (M: the gap, about -54 per cent, sits in the steady state: the model fades the core operating margin from FY2032's 54 per cent to the five actual years' through-cycle 33 per cent by FY2035 and grows the business at 1.9 per cent after it; at the model's WACC of 8.0 per cent the market prices in residual operating income growing about 6.1 per cent a year forever after FY2035 (Market-implied growth), or, read as a steady state from FY2028, a WACC of about 4.9 per cent (Market-implied WACC); either closes the gap. Revenue grew about 28 per cent a year from FY2022 to FY2026 (416.9 to 1,128.6 billion ye

Residual income against the market -53.9% (tolerance 15.0%). the same steady state: residual operating income after FY2035 growing at Japan's long-run nominal GDP growth (Market inputs.Long-run nominal GDP growth) on margins faded to the through-cycle level: the gap, about -54 per cent, has the DCF's cause: the residual income stands on the same forecasts and invested capital, so the market's 6.1 per cent growth of residual operating income after FY2035 against the model's 1.9 (Market-implied growth), or a 4.9 per cent WACC in steady state (Market-implied WACC), closes it; the two methods differ by 0.4 per cent, their continuing values' steady states

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Operating income · JPY millions
SoC tester growth factor, FY2028SoC tester revenue, FY2028 over FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
115.0%
Memory tester growth factor, FY2028Memory tester revenue, FY2028 over FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
110.0%
Cost of sales ratio, FY2028Cost of sales over revenue
DownsideBaseUpside
29.6%
SG&A ratio, FY2028Selling, general and administrative expenses over revenue
DownsideBaseUpside
16.5%

The model

Open the model
✓ All checks pass
Profit & loss
Revenue 2,147,511;Operating income 1,157,508.Revenue: 2,147,5112,147,511RevenueCost of sales: 635,663635,663Cost ofsalesGross profit: 1,511,8481,511,848GrossprofitSelling, general and administrative expenses: 354,339354,339Selling,general…Other income: 0.000.00OtherincomeOther expenses: 0.000.00OtherexpensesOperating income: 1,157,5081,157,508Operati…income
JPY millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenue779,7071,128,6101,810,6252,147,511
Cost of sales334,622402,503535,180635,663
Gross profit445,085726,1071,275,4451,511,848
Selling, general and administrative expenses195,392229,628298,822354,339
Other income1,3663,5521,1200.00
Other expenses22,8989111990.00
Operating income228,161499,120977,5451,157,508
Net income161,177375,353743,204833,116
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

No comments yet.