Share price
| Item | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 580,340 | 608,995 | 675,014 | 694,590 |
| NOPAT | 33,012 | 42,282 | 46,760 | 48,116 |
| Equity | 347,045 | 394,663 | 426,990 | 459,180 |
| Net debt | 2,830 | -4,056 | 26,722 | 36,679 |
Price vs model value
market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1DCF against the market 41.4% (tolerance 15.0%). the discount rate: beta 1 for every company (Valuation, Cost of equity, Beta), a cost of equity of 7.96 per cent and a WACC of 7.60: The DCF stands 41.4 per cent above the market capitalisation (657,711 against 465,080); the market's price implies a steady-state WACC of 10.11 per cent. At the bottom-up beta of 1.39, a WACC of 9.50 per cent, the same forecast values the equity at 476,748, 2.5 per cent above the market (evaluated on 4 November with that beta, then set back to 1): the 1.9 points of WACC move the DCF by 180,963, 28 per cent of its value, and a WACC a little above 9.5 per cent closes the gap.
Residual income against the market 42.7% (tolerance 15.0%). the same discount rate as the DCF's gap: the WACC of 7.60 per cent at beta 1: Residual income stands 42.7 per cent above the market capitalisation (663,699 against 465,080). At the bottom-up beta's WACC of 9.50 per cent the same forecast values the equity at 480,419, 3.3 per cent above the market (evaluated on 4 November with that beta, then set back to 1), so a WACC a little above 9.5 per cent closes it. At the model's WACC the market's value leaves a continuing value of minus 62,959 at FY2035 against the model's 305,515.
What if
Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.The model
Open the modelProfit & loss
| JPY millions | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & loss | ||||
| Revenue | 580,340 | 608,995 | 675,014 | 694,590 |
| Cost of sales | 440,859 | 453,946 | 509,391 | 524,163 |
| Gross profit | 139,481 | 155,048 | 165,623 | 170,426 |
| Selling and administrative expenses | 89,452 | 94,875 | 99,076 | 101,949 |
| Operating income | 50,028 | 60,172 | 66,547 | 68,477 |
| Ordinary income | 46,345 | 58,229 | 65,528 | 66,838 |
| Profit before tax | 46,940 | 62,545 | 65,528 | 66,838 |
| Profit attributable to owners of the parent | 30,416 | 41,863 | 41,695 | 42,528 |
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