Share price
| Item | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 192,633 | 229,293 | 271,101 | 306,571 |
| NOPAT | 19,136 | 30,662 | 35,468 | 39,567 |
| Equity | 99,269 | 137,069 | 162,657 | 192,209 |
| Net debt | 15,545 | -47,384 | 1,093 | 37,994 |
Price vs model value
market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1DCF against the market -19.9% (tolerance 15.0%). the forecast core operating margin (Profit and Loss cost ratios carried from FY2026; Analysis / Core operating profit / Core operating margin): Beyond the tolerance, at about minus 19.9 per cent, caused by the forecast core operating margin: FY2026's cost ratios are carried, so the margin eases from 19.1 per cent in FY2027 to 17.9 per cent in FY2032, taxed at the statutory 31.5 per cent. The market's enterprise value at the valuation date, 602.0 billion against the DCF's 482.7 billion, needs a continuing value of 891.5 billion instead of 716.6 billion (Market-implied DCF continuing value): FY2032 core NOPAT of 61.4 billion instead of 49.4 billion, a core operating margin of 22.3 per cent instead of 17.9 (Market-implied horizon NOPAT a
Residual income against the market -17.7% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2032 (residual operating income growing at Market inputs / Long-run nominal GDP growth) and the same margin path as the DCF's: Beyond the tolerance, at about minus 17.7 per cent, caused by the steady state after FY2032, the residual operating income growing at the 1.9 per cent long-run GDP growth, and by the same margin path as the DCF's. The market prices in a continuing value of 504.0 billion against the model's 347.9 billion, residual operating income growing 3.7 per cent a year after FY2032 instead of 1.9 (Market-implied growth). Beside the record: revenue grew 38.6, 16.9, 9.0, 2.8 and 19.0 per cent in FY2022 to FY2026, FY2022 a core operating loss of 3.7 billion, and ROIC ran from 26.6 to 106.2 per cent over FY20
What if
Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.The model
Open the modelProfit & loss
| JPY millions | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & loss | ||||
| Revenue | 192,633 | 229,293 | 271,101 | 306,571 |
| Cost of sales | 54,374 | 60,387 | 71,398 | 80,739 |
| Gross profit | 138,258 | 168,906 | 199,704 | 225,832 |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 110,684 | 124,724 | 147,925 | 168,070 |
| Other income | 920 | 498 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Other expenses | 654 | 774 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Operating profit | 27,840 | 43,905 | 51,778 | 57,762 |
| Profit attributable to owners of the parent | 26,114 | 35,401 | 35,587 | 39,552 |
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