Companies Mercari

Mercari

Ticker4385 · TSE
Fiscal yearends June
Updated3 days ago · r1
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A three-statement model of Mercari, the Japanese second-hand marketplace and consumer-credit group.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Mercari runs Japan's largest second-hand marketplace and, through Merpay and Mercard, a consumer credit book funded by receivables-backed borrowings and by the sales proceeds users leave in their wallets. Revenue grew from 147,049 JPY millions to 229,293 JPY millions, and core operating profit moved from -3,715 JPY millions to 44,181 JPY millions as US shipping, booked gross, shrank in the mix and Fintech, which costs little to serve, grew.
  • The forecast follows the company's FY2027 guidance for marketplace transaction value, carries FY2026's cost ratios and fades the marketplaces' growth towards the economy's. The credit book, almost all of trade and other receivables, grows from 363,953 JPY millions to 787,603 JPY millions as Mercard matures. Invested capital follows the book, so ROIC falls from 39.4% to 13.6% while core operating profit keeps rising.
  • At the snapshot of 2 November 2026, with a beta of 1 for every company, the enterprise DCF values the equity at 457,259 JPY millions and residual operating income at 469,454 JPY millions, against a market capitalisation of 570,643 JPY millions. The two methods agree within the tolerance, the gap between them sitting in their steady states. The market's price needs a wider core margin at the horizon than the forecast's carried cost ratios give, or, read through residual income, residual operating income growing 3.7% a year after FY2032.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 1,093 · Equity 162,657 (JPY millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
JPY millions-100,0000100,000200,000300,000400,000modelRevenue FY2025: 192,633 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2025: 19,136 (JPY millions)Equity FY2025: 99,269 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2025: 15,545 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026: 229,293 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026: 30,662 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026: 137,069 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026: -47,384 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2027: 271,101 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2027: 35,468 (JPY millions)Equity FY2027: 162,657 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2027: 1,093 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2028E: 306,571 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 39,567 (JPY millions)Equity FY2028E: 192,209 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2028E: 37,994 (JPY millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, JPY millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue192,633229,293271,101306,571
NOPAT19,13630,66235,46839,567
Equity99,269137,069162,657192,209
Net debt15,545-47,3841,09337,994

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
Enterprise DCF eq…Enterprise DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, JPY bnat FY2027¥401bn¥502bn¥457bnResidual operatin…Residual operating income equity valuelow → highpoint = base¥412bn¥515bn¥469bnmarket cap ¥571bn¥300bn¥400bn¥500bn¥600bn¥700bn

DCF against the market -19.9% (tolerance 15.0%). the forecast core operating margin (Profit and Loss cost ratios carried from FY2026; Analysis / Core operating profit / Core operating margin): Beyond the tolerance, at about minus 19.9 per cent, caused by the forecast core operating margin: FY2026's cost ratios are carried, so the margin eases from 19.1 per cent in FY2027 to 17.9 per cent in FY2032, taxed at the statutory 31.5 per cent. The market's enterprise value at the valuation date, 602.0 billion against the DCF's 482.7 billion, needs a continuing value of 891.5 billion instead of 716.6 billion (Market-implied DCF continuing value): FY2032 core NOPAT of 61.4 billion instead of 49.4 billion, a core operating margin of 22.3 per cent instead of 17.9 (Market-implied horizon NOPAT a

Residual income against the market -17.7% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2032 (residual operating income growing at Market inputs / Long-run nominal GDP growth) and the same margin path as the DCF's: Beyond the tolerance, at about minus 17.7 per cent, caused by the steady state after FY2032, the residual operating income growing at the 1.9 per cent long-run GDP growth, and by the same margin path as the DCF's. The market prices in a continuing value of 504.0 billion against the model's 347.9 billion, residual operating income growing 3.7 per cent a year after FY2032 instead of 1.9 (Market-implied growth). Beside the record: revenue grew 38.6, 16.9, 9.0, 2.8 and 19.0 per cent in FY2022 to FY2026, FY2022 a core operating loss of 3.7 billion, and ROIC ran from 26.6 to 106.2 per cent over FY20

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Core operating profit · JPY millions
Japan Marketplace revenue growth factor, FY2027Japan Marketplace revenue growth factor in FY2027 (1 + growth)
DownsideBaseUpside
112.0%
US Marketplace revenue growth factor, FY2027US Marketplace revenue growth factor in FY2027 (1 + growth)
DownsideBaseUpside
110.0%
Credit book growth factor, FY2027Credit book (trade and other receivables) growth factor in FY2027 (1 + growth)
DownsideBaseUpside
128.0%
Staff cost growth factor, FY2027Employee benefit expenses growth factor in FY2027 (1 + growth)
DownsideBaseUpside
105.0%

The model

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Profit & loss
Revenue 306,571;Operating profit 57,762.Revenue: 306,571306,571RevenueCost of sales: 80,73980,739Cost ofsalesGross profit: 225,832225,832GrossprofitSelling, general and administrative expenses: 168,070168,070Selling,general…Other income: 0.000.00OtherincomeOther expenses: 0.000.00OtherexpensesOperating profit: 57,76257,762Operati…profit
JPY millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenue192,633229,293271,101306,571
Cost of sales54,37460,38771,39880,739
Gross profit138,258168,906199,704225,832
Selling, general and administrative expenses110,684124,724147,925168,070
Other income9204980.000.00
Other expenses6547740.000.00
Operating profit27,84043,90551,77857,762
Profit attributable to owners of the parent26,11435,40135,58739,552
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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