Companies Nissan Chemical

Nissan Chemical

Ticker4021 · TSE
Fiscal yearends March
Updated3 days ago · r1
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A three-statement model of Nissan Chemical, the Japanese maker of semiconductor materials and crop-protection chemicals.

Summary by Your Analyst · r1

  • Nissan Chemical makes semiconductor and display materials, crop-protection chemicals and basic chemicals, and resells chemicals through its trading arm. Revenue reached 279,586 JPY millions in the year to March 2026, performance materials, the largest earner, selling 78,310 JPY millions. The core operating margin was 22.5% and the return on the capital the business employs 19.9%.
  • The forecast follows the company's semiconductor outlook to FY2031, performance materials growing faster than the group's other businesses, then slowing at the horizon. Revenue reaches 375,214 JPY millions and the core operating margin 24.7% as the higher-margin materials take a larger share, with the return on capital at 21.7%. Dividends and buybacks return most of the profit, so net debt stays near zero.
  • At the market-average cost of equity, the DCF puts the equity at 811,498 JPY millions and residual operating income at 840,374 JPY millions, against a market capitalisation of 1,024,129 JPY millions on 2 November 2026. The bridge adds the listed cross-shareholdings at market less the tax on their unrealised gain, and the unlisted shares and affiliates at book. Both methods sit below the market because of the steady state after FY2032: at the model's WACC the market prices in residual operating income growing 3.6% a year after the horizon.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -2,019 · Equity 272,354 (JPY millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
JPY millions-100,0000100,000200,000300,000400,000modelRevenue FY2025: 251,365 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2025: 38,769 (JPY millions)Equity FY2025: 233,290 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2025: 8,780 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026: 279,586 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026: 43,894 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026: 255,264 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026: -2,392 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2027: 297,838 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2027: 47,336 (JPY millions)Equity FY2027: 272,354 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2027: -2,019 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2028E: 313,026 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 48,745 (JPY millions)Equity FY2028E: 287,643 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2028E: -2,437 (JPY millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, JPY millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue251,365279,586297,838313,026
NOPAT38,76943,89447,33648,745
Equity233,290255,264272,354287,643
Net debt8,780-2,392-2,019-2,437

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, JPY tnat FY2027¥0.713tn¥0.877tn¥0.811tnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base¥0.732tn¥0.912tn¥0.840tnmarket cap ¥1.02tn¥0.6tn¥0.8tn¥1.0tn¥1.2tn

DCF against the market -20.8% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2032 (Continuing value: terminal growth 1.9 per cent, new capital earning the RONIC of 15 per cent, at the WACC of 7.97 per cent): the DCF's equity value over the market capitalisation, less one. Beyond the tolerance, about 21 per cent below: 811 thousand million at the snapshot against the market's 1,024. The cause is the steady state after FY2032 at the model's cost of capital: 78 per cent of the DCF's enterprise value is its continuing value (NOPAT growing at the GDP's 1.9 per cent a year, new capital earning a RONIC of 15 per cent, a WACC of 7.97 on the market-average cost of equity, 2.817 plus Japan's 5.14 per cent premium). The bridge is not the cause: it adds 27 thousand million for the shares held outside the oper

Residual income against the market -17.9% (tolerance 15.0%). the residual income's steady state after FY2032 (RI continuing value: FY2032's residual operating income growing at the long-run nominal GDP growth of 1.9 per cent, at the WACC of 7.97 per cent): the residual-income equity value over the market capitalisation, less one. Beyond the tolerance, about 18 per cent below: 840 thousand million at the snapshot against the market's 1,024. The cause is the residual income's steady state at the model's cost of capital: 55 per cent of its operations value is the continuing value, FY2032's residual operating income of about 40 thousand million growing at the long-run nominal GDP growth of 1.9 per cent at a WACC of 7.97; the bridge adds the same 27 thousand million for the shares held outside the operations as the DCF's. What closes it: at the model

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2028 Operating income · JPY millions
Performance materials growth factorPerformance materials sales growth factor, FY2028 to FY2031 (1.11 = 11 per cent a year)
DownsideBaseUpside
111.0%
Agricultural chemicals growth factorAgricultural chemicals sales growth factor, FY2028 to FY2030 (1.04 = 4 per cent a year)
DownsideBaseUpside
104.0%
Trading growth factorTrading sales growth factor, FY2028 to FY2030 (1.03 = 3 per cent a year)
DownsideBaseUpside
103.0%
Chemicals growth factorChemicals sales growth factor, FY2028 to FY2032 (1.02 = 2 per cent a year)
DownsideBaseUpside
102.0%

The model

Open the model
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Profit & loss
Revenue 313,026;Operating income 71,434.Revenue: 313,026313,026RevenueCost of sales: 166,343166,343Cost ofsalesGross profit: 146,683146,683Gross profitSelling and administrative expenses: 75,24975,249Selling andadministrat…Operating income: 71,43471,434Operatingincome
JPY millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenue251,365279,586297,838313,026
Cost of sales134,823148,647156,855166,343
Gross profit116,541130,939140,982146,683
Selling and administrative expenses59,70867,38771,59875,249
Operating income56,83363,55269,38471,434
Ordinary income58,01865,89772,32974,378
Net income42,95050,49955,42856,998
Profit attributable to owners of parent43,04349,70754,92956,485
Read-only · Your Analyst · r1Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years

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