Share price
| Item | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 251,365 | 279,586 | 297,838 | 313,026 |
| NOPAT | 38,769 | 43,894 | 47,336 | 48,745 |
| Equity | 233,290 | 255,264 | 272,354 | 287,643 |
| Net debt | 8,780 | -2,392 | -2,019 | -2,437 |
Price vs model value
market cap vs the model’s equity value · r1DCF against the market -20.8% (tolerance 15.0%). the steady state after FY2032 (Continuing value: terminal growth 1.9 per cent, new capital earning the RONIC of 15 per cent, at the WACC of 7.97 per cent): the DCF's equity value over the market capitalisation, less one. Beyond the tolerance, about 21 per cent below: 811 thousand million at the snapshot against the market's 1,024. The cause is the steady state after FY2032 at the model's cost of capital: 78 per cent of the DCF's enterprise value is its continuing value (NOPAT growing at the GDP's 1.9 per cent a year, new capital earning a RONIC of 15 per cent, a WACC of 7.97 on the market-average cost of equity, 2.817 plus Japan's 5.14 per cent premium). The bridge is not the cause: it adds 27 thousand million for the shares held outside the oper
Residual income against the market -17.9% (tolerance 15.0%). the residual income's steady state after FY2032 (RI continuing value: FY2032's residual operating income growing at the long-run nominal GDP growth of 1.9 per cent, at the WACC of 7.97 per cent): the residual-income equity value over the market capitalisation, less one. Beyond the tolerance, about 18 per cent below: 840 thousand million at the snapshot against the market's 1,024. The cause is the residual income's steady state at the model's cost of capital: 55 per cent of its operations value is the continuing value, FY2032's residual operating income of about 40 thousand million growing at the long-run nominal GDP growth of 1.9 per cent at a WACC of 7.97; the bridge adds the same 27 thousand million for the shares held outside the operations as the DCF's. What closes it: at the model
What if
Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.The model
Open the modelProfit & loss
| JPY millions | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & loss | ||||
| Revenue | 251,365 | 279,586 | 297,838 | 313,026 |
| Cost of sales | 134,823 | 148,647 | 156,855 | 166,343 |
| Gross profit | 116,541 | 130,939 | 140,982 | 146,683 |
| Selling and administrative expenses | 59,708 | 67,387 | 71,598 | 75,249 |
| Operating income | 56,833 | 63,552 | 69,384 | 71,434 |
| Ordinary income | 58,018 | 65,897 | 72,329 | 74,378 |
| Net income | 42,950 | 50,499 | 55,428 | 56,998 |
| Profit attributable to owners of parent | 43,043 | 49,707 | 54,929 | 56,485 |
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