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Companies ZOZO

ZOZO

Ticker3092 · TSE
Fiscal yearends March
Updated3 days ago · r2
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ZOZO operates ZOZOTOWN, Japan's leading online fashion marketplace, earning commissions on brands' consigned goods, alongside LYST and the stores it runs on LINE Yahoo's malls.

Summary by Your Analyst · r2

  • ZOZO runs ZOZOTOWN, Japan's largest fashion marketplace online, and earns mostly a commission on the goods brands consign to it. Revenue rose from 166,199 JPY millions to 228,373 JPY millions as active members grew to 12.48, while the ZOZOTOWN take rate eased to 30.5%.
  • The marketplace needs little capital: the sales proceeds it owes the consigning brands fund most of its working capital, so invested capital was only 61,514 JPY millions and the return on it 156.4%. With member growth easing towards the market's own pace and the cost ratios held, the model carries operating income from 73,290 JPY millions in the year in progress to 94,498 JPY millions, the growth fading to the economy's own by then.
  • At a WACC of 8.1%, built on beta 1 and a net cash, the enterprise DCF gives 1,020 JPY a share and residual operating income 1,058 JPY, against a close of 1,132 JPY on 2 November 2026; both sit within the methods' tolerance of the market, about three fifths of each value lying after FY2035.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt -19,755 · Equity 91,925 (JPY millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2028E · model
JPY millions-100,0000100,000200,000300,000modelRevenue FY2025: 213,131 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2025: 45,529 (JPY millions)Equity FY2025: 98,719 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2025: -66,699 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026: 228,373 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026: 48,620 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026: 106,789 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026: -44,265 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2027: 240,750 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2027: 50,711 (JPY millions)Equity FY2027: 91,925 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2027: -19,755 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2028E: 253,281 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2028E: 52,435 (JPY millions)Equity FY2028E: 94,530 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2028E: -23,763 (JPY millions)FY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Market figures, JPY millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Revenue213,131228,373240,750253,281
NOPAT45,52948,62050,71152,435
Equity98,719106,78991,92594,530
Net debt-66,699-44,265-19,755-23,763

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r2
Enterprise DCFlow → highpoint = baseEquity value, JPY tnat FY2027¥0.783tn¥0.986tn¥0.886tnResidual operatin…Residual operating incomelow → highpoint = base¥0.808tn¥1.02tn¥0.919tnmarket cap ¥0.983tn¥0.7tn¥0.8tn¥0.9tn¥1.0tn¥1.1tn

What if

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FY2028 Operating income · JPY millions
Active member growth, FY2028Active members, growth factor in FY2028 (a level shift for every later year)
DownsideBaseUpside
105.0%
ZOZOTOWN take rate, from FY2028ZOZOTOWN revenue over its gross merchandise value, held from FY2028
DownsideBaseUpside
30.4%
LINE Yahoo commerce growth, FY2028LINE Yahoo commerce gross merchandise value, growth factor in FY2028
DownsideBaseUpside
107.0%
Logistics capex, share of revenue, from FY2028Capital expenditure on property over revenue, held from FY2028
DownsideBaseUpside
2.5%

The model

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Profit & loss
Revenue 253,281;Operating income 75,782.Revenue: 253,281253,281RevenueCost of sales: 17,82617,826Cost ofsalesGross profit: 235,454235,454Gross profitSelling, general and administrative expenses: 159,672159,672Selling,general and…Operating income: 75,78275,782Operatingincome
JPY millionsFY2025FY2026FY2027FY2028E
Profit & loss
Revenue213,131228,373240,750253,281
Cost of sales14,81915,37216,94417,826
Gross profit198,312213,000223,806235,454
Selling, general and administrative expenses133,556143,634150,516159,672
Operating income64,75669,36673,29075,782
Ordinary income64,88869,26173,22775,627
Profit before tax64,71068,47773,22775,627
Net income attributable to owners of the parent45,34647,92650,45352,107
Read-only · Your Analyst · r2Reported FY2025–FY2027 · Forecast FY2028E · All years
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