Companies Nichirei

Nichirei

Ticker2871 · TSE
Fiscal yearends December
Updated3 days ago · r2
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Nichirei, a Japanese frozen-food maker and cold-chain logistics operator, valued by enterprise DCF and residual operating income on its reformulated statements at the market-average cost of capital.

Summary by Your Analyst · r2

  • Nichirei makes frozen and processed food and runs cold-chain logistics, temperature-controlled warehousing and transport in Japan and Europe; each earns about half the group's profit. Revenue was 716,144 JPY millions JPY millions in FY2026 and core NOPAT, the operating profit after its own tax, 24,448 JPY millions. The company is moving its year end from March to December, so the year to December 2026 is a nine-month transition period.
  • The mid-term plan builds new cold stores ahead of their revenue. Core NOPAT rises to 29,058 JPY millions JPY millions by FY2031, but the added capital lowers the return on invested capital from 8.1% in FY2026 to 6.3% in FY2031, below the market-average WACC of 6.6%, so the forecast's residual operating income is slightly negative in every year.
  • At that common discount rate, the enterprise DCF gives an equity value of 265,412 JPY millions JPY millions and residual operating income 267,750 JPY millions at the 30 October 2026 snapshot, against a market capitalisation of 538,451 JPY millions. The market's enterprise value implies a WACC of 4.7% if the business were in its steady state from FY2027; the share's own regression betas are low, and its ROIC stayed above the market-average WACC in each of FY2022 to FY2026.

Share price

—— today— 1M · — 1YMarket cap — · Net debt 133,052 · Equity 294,263 (JPY millions) · — shares
Market cap · monthlyRevenueNOPATEquityNet debtFY2027E · model
JPY millions0200,000400,000600,000800,000modelRevenue FY2025: 702,080 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2025: 25,035 (JPY millions)Equity FY2025: 260,040 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2025: 69,042 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026: 716,144 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026: 24,448 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026: 286,344 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026: 74,937 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2026Dec9m: 604,451 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2026Dec9m: 18,682 (JPY millions)Equity FY2026Dec9m: 294,263 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2026Dec9m: 133,052 (JPY millions)Revenue FY2027E: 756,312 (JPY millions)NOPAT FY2027E: 26,071 (JPY millions)Equity FY2027E: 306,409 (JPY millions)Net debt FY2027E: 139,027 (JPY millions)FY2025FY2026FY2026Dec9mFY2027E
Market figures, JPY millions
ItemFY2025FY2026FY2026Dec9mFY2027E
Revenue702,080716,144604,451756,312
NOPAT25,03524,44818,68226,071
Equity260,040286,344294,263306,409
Net debt69,04274,937133,052139,027

Price vs model value

market cap vs the model’s equity value · r2
DCF equity valuelow → highpoint = baseEquity value, JPY bnat FY2026Dec9m¥219bn¥292bn¥265bnResidual income e…Residual income equity valuelow → highpoint = base¥221bn¥295bn¥268bnmarket cap ¥538bn0¥200bn¥400bn¥600bn¥800bn

DCF to market gap -50.7% (tolerance 15.0%). The cost of capital: At the yardstick's beta of 1 (cost of equity 7.96 per cent, WACC 6.58) the DCF's equity value at the snapshot is 265.4 billion yen against a market capitalisation of 538.5 billion, 50.7 per cent below. With the forecasts held, a beta of 0.54 (cost of equity 5.59 per cent, WACC 4.69) closes the gap, the DCF's equity value rising to 536.2 billion, 0.4 per cent below the market: a WACC near the 4.70 per cent the market's enterprise value implies at the model's g and RONIC (the steady-state reading) and the 4.5 per cent the company itself states (May 2026 deck p47). Beside the record: revenue grew

Residual income to market gap -50.3% (tolerance 15.0%). The cost of capital against the forecast's returns: At the yardstick's WACC of 6.58 per cent, above the forecast's ROIC (6.5 per cent in FY2027, 6.3 by FY2031), residual operating income is negative in every forecast year (-1.25 billion yen in FY2031), so the residual-income equity value is 267.8 billion yen, 50.3 per cent below the market capitalisation of 538.5 billion, and no growth of residual income after the horizon reaches the market's value: the market prices in a higher return than the forecast's or a lower cost of capital. With the forecasts held, the same beta of 0.54 (WACC 4.69 per cent) closes it, the residual-income equity value r

What if

Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.
FY2027 Operating income · JPY millions
Food revenue growth factorFood revenue growth a year, FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
102.0%
Logistics revenue growth factorLogistics revenue growth a year, FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
105.0%
Asset-renewal loss rateAsset-renewal losses as a share of opening property, FY2027
DownsideBaseUpside
1.3%

The model

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Profit & loss
Revenue 756,312;Operating income 41,188.Revenue: 756,312756,312RevenueCost of sales: 619,842619,842Cost ofsalesGross profit: 136,470136,470Gross profitSelling and administrative expenses: 95,28395,283Selling andadministrat…Operating income: 41,18841,188Operatingincome
JPY millionsFY2025FY2026FY2026Dec9mFY2027E
Profit & loss
Revenue702,080716,144604,451756,312
Cost of sales575,852586,922495,431619,842
Gross profit126,228129,221109,021136,470
Selling and administrative expenses87,91390,22278,42195,283
Operating income38,31538,99930,60041,188
Ordinary income39,87840,14930,96741,443
Profit before tax37,83541,52130,73537,673
Profit attributable to owners of the parent24,73127,33220,23224,799
Read-only · Your Analyst · r2Reported FY2025–FY2026Dec9m · Forecast FY2027E · All years

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