Share price
| Item | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2026Dec9m | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 702,080 | 716,144 | 604,451 | 756,312 |
| NOPAT | 25,035 | 24,448 | 18,682 | 26,071 |
| Equity | 260,040 | 286,344 | 294,263 | 306,409 |
| Net debt | 69,042 | 74,937 | 133,052 | 139,027 |
Price vs model value
market cap vs the model’s equity value · r2DCF to market gap -50.7% (tolerance 15.0%). The cost of capital: At the yardstick's beta of 1 (cost of equity 7.96 per cent, WACC 6.58) the DCF's equity value at the snapshot is 265.4 billion yen against a market capitalisation of 538.5 billion, 50.7 per cent below. With the forecasts held, a beta of 0.54 (cost of equity 5.59 per cent, WACC 4.69) closes the gap, the DCF's equity value rising to 536.2 billion, 0.4 per cent below the market: a WACC near the 4.70 per cent the market's enterprise value implies at the model's g and RONIC (the steady-state reading) and the 4.5 per cent the company itself states (May 2026 deck p47). Beside the record: revenue grew
Residual income to market gap -50.3% (tolerance 15.0%). The cost of capital against the forecast's returns: At the yardstick's WACC of 6.58 per cent, above the forecast's ROIC (6.5 per cent in FY2027, 6.3 by FY2031), residual operating income is negative in every forecast year (-1.25 billion yen in FY2031), so the residual-income equity value is 267.8 billion yen, 50.3 per cent below the market capitalisation of 538.5 billion, and no growth of residual income after the horizon reaches the market's value: the market prices in a higher return than the forecast's or a lower cost of capital. With the forecasts held, the same beta of 0.54 (WACC 4.69 per cent) closes it, the residual-income equity value r
What if
Moving a driver re-runs the model; that opens shortly. The sliders show the Official’s own values.The model
Open the modelProfit & loss
| JPY millions | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2026Dec9m | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & loss | ||||
| Revenue | 702,080 | 716,144 | 604,451 | 756,312 |
| Cost of sales | 575,852 | 586,922 | 495,431 | 619,842 |
| Gross profit | 126,228 | 129,221 | 109,021 | 136,470 |
| Selling and administrative expenses | 87,913 | 90,222 | 78,421 | 95,283 |
| Operating income | 38,315 | 38,999 | 30,600 | 41,188 |
| Ordinary income | 39,878 | 40,149 | 30,967 | 41,443 |
| Profit before tax | 37,835 | 41,521 | 30,735 | 37,673 |
| Profit attributable to owners of the parent | 24,731 | 27,332 | 20,232 | 24,799 |
No comments yet.